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New Zealand Election Looms
[2017-09-21   06:11 GMT]

Growth is recovering slowly after two sluggish quarters, putting New Zealand on course for a ninth straight year of expansion just two days before voters go to the polls in the Sept. 23 election. While demand is being stoked by record-low interest rates and surging immigration, there are few signs that inflation pressures are building sufficiently for the Reserve Bank to change its forecast that borrowing costs will stay unchanged until 2019.

Faster growth “won’t prevent the RBNZ from leaving interest rates unchanged at next Thursday’s policy meeting and striking a dovish tone too,” said Paul Dales, chief Australia and New Zealand economist at Capital Economics in Sydney. “It may give National a bit of a boost ahead of Saturday’s election.”

Rate Hike
[2017-09-21   06:04 GMT]

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged that the fall in inflation this year was a bit of a “mystery” but suggested that the central bank was on course to raise interest rates again in 2017 nonetheless.

“We continue to expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases” in rates, she told a press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it will slowly begin to pare its bond holdings next month. As expected, the target range for the federal funds rate was held at 1 percent to 1.25 percent.

The central bank’s intention to press ahead with another rate hike this year and three more in 2018 caught investors by surprise, sending bond yields and the dollar higher. The strategy represents a bit of a gamble because it risks cementing inflation permanently below the Fed’s 2 percent target.

Yellen said inflation may be lifted by higher prices for gasoline and other items while growth will be depressed by the devastation caused by the storms. But history suggests those effects will prove to be temporary, she said.

FED Sees 2017 Hike
[2017-09-21   05:57 GMT]

Dollar surged after the Federal Reserve struck a more hawkish tone than markets anticipated.

While policy makers left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, markets showed a hawkish reaction to officials’ forecast for where rates will be at the end of the year. U.S. central bankers are counting on steady growth and low unemployment to raise inflation closer to their goal, which would support their policy of gradual tightening through interest-rate increases and a reversal of quantitative easing.

“Catching the equity market off guard was the dot plot indicating that 12 of the 16 voting members project a December rate hike,” said Quincy Krosby, Chief Market Strategist at Prudential Financial.“There remains an ongoing tug of war between those who think the economy is still too weak to handle another rate hike versus those who say that financial conditions and a strengthening global economy warrant the move towards rate normalization.”

42-minute tweetstorm
[2017-09-20   05:03 GMT]
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Trump's rhetoric -- dubbing Kim Jong-un a "rocket man" on a "suicide mission" -- was lapped up by supporters at home, but left allies around the world bewildered at the change that has gripped the world's only superpower.

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US officials privately admit that any military option against North Korea would be potentially disastrous for allies in South Korea, within range of Pyongyang artillery loaded with chemical weapons.

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The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually active
[2017-09-20   04:56 GMT]

It will almost certainly be the most expensive season on record in the United States. That distinction, like most others, currently belongs to 2005, when Katrina and three other major hurricanes caused more than $143.5 billion of damage in the country. But this year, AccuWeather estimated that Hurricanes Harvey and Irma might cost a combined $290 billion: two storms producing double the economic damage of four in 2005.

Gold Retracement
[2017-09-19   07:58 GMT]

The retracement is perfected before strengthening further ahead of year end.

A Close below 38% would send the price lightly below 61%

De-Dollarization
[2017-09-19   07:18 GMT]

China and Russia, joined most likely by their major trading partner countries in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), as well as by their Eurasian partner countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are about to complete the working architecture of a new monetary alternative to a dollar world.


Currently, in addition to founding members China and Russia, the SCO full members include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and most recently India and Pakistan. This is a population of well over 3 billion people, some 42% of the entire world population, coming together in a coherent, planned, peaceful economic and political cooperation.


China is about to launch a crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan that will be convertible into gold. This, when coupled with other moves over the past two years by China to become a viable alternative to London and New York to Shanghai, becomes really interesting.


Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that Venezuela will be looking to “free” itself from the U.S. dollar next week. According to Reuters, "Venezuela is going to implement a new system of international payments and will create a basket of currencies to free us from the dollar.”

Yellen Final Stretch
[2017-09-19   07:16 GMT]

Janet Yellen, the first woman to chair the Federal Reserve, may be entering the final stretch of a tenure defined by her deft navigation of the U.S. economy and the first steps toward exiting crisis-era policies that kept interest rates near zero for the better part of a decade.

President Donald Trump said in July that Yellen is “absolutely” in the running to remain at the helm of the U.S. central bank when her term expires in February. That doesn’t mean he’ll pick her, or that she even wants a second term. Yellen has declined to comment on the topic. The White House is also considering other candidates.

Oil most polluting industries had started fighting climate change
[2017-09-19   07:14 GMT]

It’s no secret that oil majors are among the biggest corporate emitters of pollution. What may be surprising is that they’re reducing their greenhouse-gas footprints every year, actively participating in a trend that’s swept up most corporate behemoths.

The five biggest oil companies -- Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp., BP Plc and Total SA -- collectively curbed their pollution by an average of 13 percent between 2010 and 2015, the report said. BP cut the most at 25.5 percent. Exxon, the largest emitter among listed companies, pushed it down by 14 percent.

The report shows a reverse from previous decades, when scientific warnings about climate change were new and the companies behind the most emissions lobbied policymakers to ignore the issue. As mega-storms like Hurricane Irma this year and Sandy in 2012 raised consciousness about the issue, companies even in the oil business have taken steps to rein in pollution and associate themselves with the green agenda.

The reductions recorded by the 100 top companies saved 70.7 million tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, about as much as Israel emits in a year. Because emissions data takes so long to compile, 2015 is the latest year covered.

“This is a reflection of growing pressure from shareholders, investor groups and civil society for more disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as setting reduction targets,” said Laura McIntyre-Brown, analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance and the author of the report. “There’s also an evident trend of increased emissions disclosure among many of the biggest companies.”

What to watch out for this week:
[2017-09-19   07:08 GMT]

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has reshuffled her team of top Brexit negotiators in preparation for talks entering a new phase.

The BOJ is predicted to stand pat Thursday and probably won’t reveal when it’ll unwind stimulus, but could signal determination to keep the yield curve under control.

Indonesia, the Philippines and South Africa are among countries settling monetary policy.

The final days of Germany’s parliamentary campaign will play out before the Sept. 24 vote. New Zealand goes to the polls on Sept. 23.

Markets maintained a risk-on stance
[2017-09-19   07:07 GMT]

U.S. stocks advanced to fresh records, while the dollar halted a two-day drop and Treasuries slipped as investors remained optimistic about the economy. Gold fell as demand for havens faded.

The S&P 500 Index held above 2,500 to notch a fresh record after briefly losing an advance that reached 0.3 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added to its all-time high. Earlier, equities from Asia to Europe gained. The dollar climbed versus the euro and pound. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 2.23 percent. Gold tumbled, while oil was little changed.
Markets maintained a risk-on stance after last week’s gains, with investors turning attention to this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. While the central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, close attention will be paid to the chance of an increase later in the year and on whether officials will announce the start of a reduction in the bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

Rollercoaster for Bitcoin
[2017-09-19   07:04 GMT]


    In order for the Chinese government to prevent and control the risk of virtual currency, it decided to prohibit the issuance of ICO tokens, and stop the trading of cryptocurrencies and other virtual currencies on exchanges, to better protect the interests of China's financial consumers, and to prevent the spread of currency risk to China's financial system, safeguard China's financial security and the stability of important economic initiatives. The sovereign state is still the fundamental player in global politics, and carries with it the characteristics of the world financial system. Cryptocurrencies and other virtual currencies attempt to challenge the sovereign state's right to issue currency, requiring the nationalization of currency issuance. China has a clear understanding of digital forms of money, and is actively engaging in relevant work. The central bank has set up a research group and a digital money research institute to explore the digitization of sovereign money. After this round of virtual money markets supervision, we expect under the auspices of the Chinese central bank to launch our own sovereign digital currency as soon as possible to help maintain China's leadership in the development of global digital finance.

 
Australia's Central Bank Sees Solid Jobs Growth Ahead
[2017-09-19   06:57 GMT]

Australia’s central bank expects to see solid employment growth ahead as the economy gradually picks up, while noting risks from housing debt outpacing household income.

In minutes of this month’s policy meeting, where interest rates were left unchanged, the Reserve Bank of Australia gave no signal policy was set to change any time soon.

Global Central Banks To Issue Cryptocurrencies
[2017-09-18   12:51 GMT]

The world’s central banks can’t ignore the growth in cryptocurrencies and may at some point have to consider whether it makes sense for them to issue their own digital currencies, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

“Whether or not a central bank should provide a digital alternative to cash is most pressing in countries, such as Sweden, where cash usage is rapidly declining,” the BIS said in its quarterly review. “But all central banks may eventually have to decide whether issuing retail or wholesale CBCCs makes sense in their own context.”

In making these decisions, institutions will need to take into account of not only privacy issues and efficiency gains in payment systems, but also potential economic, financial and monetary policy repercussions, according to the BIS.

“In less than a decade, bitcoin has gone from being an obscure curiosity to a household name,” it said. “While it seems unlikely that bitcoin or its sisters will displace sovereign currencies, they have demonstrated the viability of the underlying blockchain or distributed ledger technology.”

 

Bitcoin Bulls Status: Crowded
[2017-09-18   12:46 GMT]

Bullish bets on the cryptocurrency are now considered the most crowded trade in financial markets, according to fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Twenty-six percent cited bitcoin, surpassing the 22 percent who considered the most overheated wager to be the long trade on the Nasdaq Composite Index. Shorting the dollar was third, at 21 percent. The cryptocurrency has risen more than four-fold this year amid greater acceptance of the blockchain technology that underpins the exchange method, global political uncertainty and increased interest in Asia.

Options Dealers Anticipate Calmer Seas
[2017-09-18   12:42 GMT]

The euro halted a decline last week on the 13th to avoid its first two-day drop this month, as options traders wagered the selloff will get reversed.

They’re net bullish all the way out to six months from now versus the dollar, taking heart from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi failing to talk down his currency in public comments on Sept. 7, and from futures indicating the most aggressive long wagering since 2011.

DXY
[2017-09-18   09:44 GMT]

Multi Decades Dollar Index In One Picture does not say anything about serious bulls!

EURGBP
[2017-09-06   11:15 GMT]

A trade for the rest of the year - enjoy the tactic!

Cautioned Against Over Dramatizing the Appreciation of Euro
[2017-09-06   05:55 GMT]

Foreign exchange traders face an anxious wait to see if European Central Bank policymakers will on Thursday address a euro rally that has put the currency on track for the best year against the dollar in its history.

An improving eurozone economy and the prospect that the ECB will scale back a bond-buying plan first introduced in 2015 to ward off deflation, has catapulted the euro almost 13 per cent higher against the US currency so far this year.

The majority of economists expect Mario Draghi, the ECB president, and the rest of the governing council to delay announcing a timetable for cutting its monthly purchase of bonds when they gather this week. However, traders and investors in the $5.1tn daily currency market will be intensely focused on whether officials voice any anxiety about an appreciation in the common currency that threatens the competitiveness of eurozone exporters and exerts downward pressure on inflation.

Mr. Draghi has to talk about the euro, said Thanos Vamvakidis, a senior foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “They’re already below their [inflation] target, they have to acknowledge there are further downside risks to their inflation outlook because of the strong euro.”

Indeed on Friday, Ewald Nowotny, a member of the governing council, cautioned against over dramatizing the appreciation of the euro, which traded at close to the $1.40 mark in 2014. However, even if Mr. Draghi seeks to temper the euro’s strength this week, some are skeptical it will have a lasting effect should a strengthening eurozone economy persuade investors to allocate more capital to the region.

Job Report
[2017-09-01   12:54 GMT]

A disappointing jobs report, with both lower-than-expected wages and headline number. Treasury yields fall. Dollar heads lower after the jobs report; The economy has added 1,189,000 jobs so far since Trump took office. That's about 170,000 a month, a bit slower than Obama gains last year. The bad news in the jobs report: Wages only grew by 2.5%. We're just not getting any wage growth. And......Gold is back to where we started!

Government to release August job growth and unemployment report
[2017-09-01   12:21 GMT]

How many jobs did the economy create in August? We'll find out at 8:30am. The 200,000+ jobs would be good sign for POTUS.

The federal government is scheduled to release its report on August job growth and unemployment Friday, an important indicator of the overall health of the U.S. economy after two months of strong growth.

Analysts and market watchers expect federal economists to report that about 200,000 new jobs were created in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3 percent — a 16-year low.

Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor, which tracks employment data, said the United States appears to be inching toward full employment, but the sheer volume of vacant positions could stall further progress.

Nationally, economists expect August to continue a historic, 98-month-long string of consecutive months of job growth.

Signs of improvement have characterized this summer: July’s burst of new jobs (209,000) followed June’s surge (222,000). The stock markets have soared to record highs.

And about a month ago, the country reached a recovery milestone, regaining the same employment level it had before the recession hit about 10 years earlier, accounting for changes in population. (The nation regained its pre-downturn number of jobs in April 2014.)

LABOR DEPT HAVING LOCKUP TECH PROBLEMS; RELEASE ON WEB AT 8:30
[2017-09-01   12:12 GMT]

The Mess is On:

Moments ago, Bloomberg blasted that unlike every other payrolls Friday when at 8:30am precisely, news feeds are flooded with headlines breaking down the jobs report, prompting algos to buy or buy stocks, this time that won't happen:

  • LABOR DEPT HAVING LOCKUP TECH PROBLEMS; RELEASE ON WEB AT 8:30

This means that anyone, algos included, who wants to get the jobs number will either have to wait several minutes until others have done the work for them (so roughly 90% of Wall Street analysts) or have to go to the BLS.gov website, scrape it manually and break down the data on their own.

It also means that today's market reaction to the jobs report will likely be a mess.

BITCOIN: TP: 5200
[2017-09-01   11:45 GMT]

Famed investor Andrew Left, who makes his money betting that the shares of companies are overvalued and due for a fall, has a fresh target in his sights: a bitcoin fund. Bitcoin is exorbitantly overvalued relative to its underlying asset and poised to tumble. Bitcoin is up 400% year to date, but the Grayscale fund is up an eye-popping 726% so far this year, according to FactSet data.

Moreover, the problem is that Bitcoin Investment Trust maintains a market value of $1.8 billion. In other words, Grayscale’s bitcoin fund is more than twice the value of bitcoin — an asset that is itself the subject of a litany of bubble calls. “That alone is completely ridiculous, but on top of that they don’t even have insurance for the bitcoin that they are custodians of,” Left told CNBC on Thursday during an interview on “Fast Money,” referring to its valuation.

Bottom-line: “For investors buying into the fund, such large premiums are a disaster waiting to happen”

 

Greenback is key for the commodities market
[2017-09-01   11:40 GMT]

COPPER MAKES A RUN TOWARD $7,000: Tuesday was another good day for base metals, as copper rallied to an almost three-year high and putting it within reach of the key $7,000 a metric ton level. Like with most other markets, commodities traders looked past North Korea's latest missile test to focus on a weaker dollar and an outlook for improved Chinese demand. The greenback is key for the commodities market as its slump makes raw materials cheaper for buyers using other currencies, according to Bloomberg News' Mark Burton. Copper’s rally this month has helped it to challenge aluminum’s position as the best-performing base metal this year. Copper is up 23 percent on the LME, compared with 24 percent for aluminum. China, the world’s largest aluminum producer, is tackling excess supply by ordering plant closures and looks set to make good on its pledges as the government pushes to reduce pollution, according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd. 

Next Disaster: Irma versus gas shortages
[2017-09-01   11:22 GMT]

Irma was named as a tropical storm on Wednesday morning and by Thursday afternoon it had strengthened into a large Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 115 mph. Such explosive strengthening is known as "rapid intensification," defined by the National Hurricane Center as having its wind speed increase at least 30 knots (35 mph) in 24 hours.

Hurricane Harvey underwent rapid intensification last week, just before landfall, which brought it from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane when it moved onshore near Corpus Christi. TRACK THE STORM HERE

Hurricane Irma is forecast to continue to strengthen as it moves westward over the next five days and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center puts a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Irma on the doorstep of the Caribbean by the end of the five-day forecast on Tuesday afternoon.

Bottom line: Hurricane Irma is already a powerful hurricane and looks to only become more so. Those with interests in the Caribbean and southeast US coast should pay close attention to the forecast.

Why are we seeing gas shortages now?

Texas is the energy capital of the country, both in terms of crude oil production and refining that into different types of fuel such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products. Several refineries shut down as a precaution before Harvey made landfall in southeast Texas coast on Friday night as a category 4 hurricane. In the following days, as the storm caused widespread flooding, more inland refineries stopped operations. As of late Wednesday, more than a fifth of the nation's refining capacity -- including two of the country's largest oil refineries -- was out of commission as oil companies battled flooding. 

How long will this last?

There is still a great deal of uncertainty. Many refineries have not said when they expect refineries to be back up and running. But experts aren't panicking. There's little evidence of major damage at most Texas Gulf Coast refineries, which are well-equipped to deal with flooding, Hatfield said. However, they can't just flip a switch and immediately start producing gasoline and diesel.

 

August labor market report
[2017-09-01   11:14 GMT]

All eyes are on the August labor market report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, which will likely set the tone for the trading week to come. Economists forecast job growth of 180,000, the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3 percent, a 16-year low, and average hourly earnings up 0.2 percent month-on-month. The latter metric is capturing more market attention in light of mediocre wage growth even as the labor market tightens. One note of caution: for six years running, economists have consistently overestimated August payrolls. Manufacturing and vehicle-sales data are also due out today.

The consensus has been consistently wrong about U.S. employment in the month of August. For six years running, economists have overestimated the government’s initial payrolls print -- and by a pretty wide margin -- a trend that may be explained by the seasonal adjustment process. To be fair, the government has revised those first August prints substantially higher. The biggest miss was in 2014, when the Bloomberg median forecast was off by a whopping 88,000. The median projection ahead of Friday’s jobs report is 180,000.

What ForexSurvivor Trades?

ForexSurvivor trades all instruments namely, Forex, Futures, Commodities, Energies, Equities, Indexes, & Agriculture that fit into its strategy with spread of max 35pips. It turns volatile, breakout, reversing or even stand-aside markets into achievable trading entries and follows through to successful, positive trade closings. ForexSurvivor's daily, weekly, or monthly objectives are achievable even under severe circumstances as 9/11, Hurricanes, Wars, & other sorts of Quakes.

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