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Plethora of Nuisances,
[2017-11-20   09:52 GMT]

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Euro Higher Thanks to GDP
[2017-11-17   04:26 GMT]

While investors aren’t pricing any rate hikes by the European Central Bank until at least 2019, strategists say it’s becoming harder to ignore the continent’s improving macroeconomic backdrop when looking at the euro against its peers. With European interest rates still hovering near record lows, the shared currency has yet to decisively break above the key $1.20 level. But behind its recent bouts of strength lies the realization that the ECB may start running out of excuses to maintain its stimulus.

The Bloomberg Euro Index notched six straight days of gains through Tuesday as global equities took a battering and investors flocked to the relative safety of government debt. The European currency bought $1.1770 as of 5 p.m. Thursday in New York, more than 1 percent above its level from a week earlier. The average forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts is for the common currency to appreciate to $1.22 next year.

Europe’s burgeoning current account surplus and persistent growth will sustain euro strength into 2018. The surplus expanded to a record 3.5 percent of GDP in June 2016, from about zero in 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The surplus remained at 3 percent as of June. The euro will continue to go higher because of the 3 percent of GDP current account surplus backing it up.

BOE Interest Rate vs. Brexit: Soaring
[2017-11-16   08:00 GMT]

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UK Inflation
[2017-11-14   08:26 GMT]

U.K. inflation is poised to break through 3 percent, which will force Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to write a letter to the chancellor about how policy makers will respond. Economists expect a 3.1 percent rate for October on Tuesday, more than one percentage point above the central bank’s target. But the good news is this may be the peak, with the BOE -- which raised interest rates in November -- predicting a slowdown in coming months and through 2018.

GBPUSD 300 PIPS - Dilemma!
[2017-11-14   08:13 GMT]

Bullish: 1.4000

Bearish: 1.2600

Sleep Mode: Gold
[2017-11-13   14:32 GMT]

“It really is very quiet to say the least,” said David Govett, head of precious metals trading at Marex Spectron Group Ltd. in London. “We’re stuck between $1,260 and $1,300 and have been for a month now and I really don’t see that changing without something dramatic happening elsewhere. Looks like the market has gone into sleep mode.”

Renewed Concern
[2017-11-13   14:27 GMT]

Sterling snapped a two-day rally after the Sunday Times reported 40 Conservative members of Parliament, nearly enough to trigger a leadership challenge, have agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May. This prompted a response by the opposition Labour, which accused May of lacking the support from her own party to deliver the Brexit transition period she’s proposed.

The pound rose on Friday after European Commission chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis left open the chance of a transition deal by the EU’s summit on Dec. 14. The relief rally has now reversed as news over the weekend suggests big hurdles remain in place. Option traders have also applied pressure on the pound, as bets on a weaker sterling by year-end gained traction on Monday, risk reversals show.

GBPUSD Pattern Ended for Another Pattern
[2017-11-10   06:46 GMT]

Sterling is getting near an interesting crossroad. Since its final demolition in Sep/Oct 2016, it double-bottomed at almost 1.2000 (Oct’16 + Jan’17 low).

You Have Been Warned!
[2017-11-09   11:34 GMT]

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The New Industries: Marijuana & Blockchain
[2017-11-09   10:56 GMT]

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The Dollar Is Now More Correlated With Oil
[2017-11-08   07:22 GMT]

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Impulsive Rally Secures Consolidation @ 8,000
[2017-11-08   06:43 GMT]

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AUD Longs Reduced,
[2017-11-07   04:47 GMT]

RBA LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 1.50% AND BEARS SAY 70 U.S. CENTS LOOMS. The Aussie tumbled 2.3 percent in October, the worst month since December, and dropped to a three-month low of 76.25 cents on Oct. 27. For now, a decline to 74 cents in the near term is a “reasonable target,” betting on gains in Aussie bonds and losses in Treasuries. Australian dollar will stay under pressure as the RBA is unlikely to be in a position to raise rates for at least another six months. The latest positioning data shows the market is still bullish on the Aussie but is trimming its stance. Hedge funds and other large speculators cut their leveraged Aussie longs to 54,261 contracts in the week ended Oct. 31 from 86,204 at the end of August, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The net bullish position means there’s greater room for the currency to decline if sentiment worsens.

Lowest in 17 Years,
[2017-11-03   12:46 GMT]

America's job market got back on its feet in October: Unemployment rate down to 4.1%. Looks like we'll be seeing a 3-handle soon.

This is a good sign: Over past 12 months, the number of people stuck in part-time jobs who actually want full-time DECREASED by 1.1 million

The underemployment rate continues to fall as well, down to 7.9% in October. Lowest level since December 2006.

Wage growth at 2.4% YoY misses estimates - US NFP report disappoints. Payrolls rise 261k vs. 313k exp, jobless rate drops to 4.1% vs. 4.2% exp, lowest since Dec2000, AHE 2.4% vs. 2.7%exp.

Little reaction on Wall Street to the jobs report. Dow futures remain slightly higher following NFP.

America is still hiring. 261,000 jobs added in October, a nice rebound from -33k September.

The Bank of England heads for its first interest-rate increase in a decade,
[2017-11-02   13:24 GMT]

The U.K. central bank raised its key rate by 25 basis points from a record low to 0.50 percent Thursday in the first increase since 2007, a shift that economists widely expected. This is the first rate hike from Governor Mark Carney. He joined the Bank of England in 2013 after a stint leading Canada's central bank. 

Wall Street Take About FOMC
[2017-11-01   05:57 GMT]

Barclays: We expect the FOMC to leave its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.00%-1.25% at the November meeting as it continues to evaluate to what degree recent disinflation is temporary or persistent.

Deutsche Bank: With market expectations running very much in line with the FOMC’s latest median projection of a rate hike in December, the FOMC will have little reason to either amplify or alter its message in the November statement.

HSBC: There are unlikely to be any major policy surprises delivered at this meeting, we continue to expect the next 25bps rate hike to come in December. The policy statement may repeat that Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria disrupted near-term economic activity but are unlikely to impact the medium-term outlook for the economy.

ForexSurvivor Live Trading Statement
[2017-10-31   05:11 GMT]

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Moment of Truth
[2017-10-31   02:19 GMT]

The full slate of events ahead and the prospect of market turmoil could scare away traders until the dust settles.

The next four trading days will bring a torrent of market-moving information: President Donald Trump is poised to finally announce his nominee to lead the Federal Reserve; U.S. central bankers have an interest-rate decision to make; and the Treasury will unveil plans to issue more debt to make up for lost funding from the Fed. Oh, and investors will also get the latest reading on the nation’s job market and the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge.

It’s a lot to digest. What’s more, it all comes at a pivotal time, with 10-year yields breaking above the crucial 2.4 percent level and touching a seven-month high of 2.48 percent. With yields entering a new, elevated range, traders are bracing for turbulence as they ponder the direction of the world’s biggest bond market for the remainder of 2017. The weekly close indicates bulls in full control and there is no plan in giving up on long posts yet, not until 2.6% yields, targeting 2.8%

It’s a critical week of economic data, with releases on inflation and the labor market

Oct. 31: Employment cost index, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indexes, MNI Chicago Business Barometer, consumer confidence

Nov. 1: ADP employment change, construction spending, Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, prices paid, new orders and employment

Nov. 2: Challenger job cuts, initial jobless claims, continuing claims, nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, Bloomberg consumer confidence

Nov. 3: Change in nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, labor-force participation rate, trade balance, factory orders, durable goods orders, Markit U.S. services and composite PMIs

The FOMC is expected to leave rates unchanged Nov. 1 and set up a hike in December

ECB: At Record Low
[2017-10-26   11:47 GMT]

ECB Leaves rates Unchanged; Cuts QE To €30BN From Jan Until September. German 10y yields drop as ECB statement is being interpreted as dovish.

"If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the APP in terms of size and/or duration."

Mario Draghi
[2017-10-26   11:42 GMT]

The ECB’s meeting on Thursday to discuss how and when it should bring large-scale bond purchases to an end is one of the most keenly anticipated by investors and economists since early 2015 when the program was unveiled. The decision will be announced at 1:45 p.m. in Frankfurt and Draghi will speak 45 minutes later.

Cable Ripping
[2017-10-25   15:15 GMT]

UK Economy grows more than forecast.

The pound strengthened, reversing an earlier decline against the dollar, after data showed the U.K. economy expanded more than forecast in the third quarter, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates next week.

Sterling continued to climb as Brexit Secretary Davis said in testimony to lawmakers that he thought the chance of the U.K. leaving the EU with no deal at all was very unlikely. For now, target GBPUSD at 1.34

The pound rose 0.6 percent to $1.3218 as of 11:04 a.m. in London, after dropping earlier to $1.3110. Sterling strengthened 0.6 percent to 89.03 pence per euro.

Investors in the money markets are now pricing an 86 percent probability that the BOE will raise rates on Nov. 2, up from 82 percent on Tuesday.

The Plunge of the Loonie,
[2017-10-25   15:04 GMT]

The Unchanged: Bank of Canada holds rates steady. BOC urges caution.

The Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold, warning it would remain “cautious” when considering future hikes as it gauges the economic impact of gains in the Canadian dollar and higher rates while flagging the risk of growing protectionism in the U.S.

After two rate hikes earlier in the year, once in July and an unexpected rate hike in September, the Bank of Canada decided to tread lightly, and kept its overnight rate at 1%, as everyone expected stating that "the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate" and changes its hiking tune, warning that "less monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time."

Looking ahead, the BOC expects growth to moderate in 2H 2017 and "remain close to potential over the next two years" while real GDP is expected to expand 3.1% in 2017, 2.1% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019, from 2.8%, 2.0% and 1.6% respectively. Inflation expected to reach 2% by second half of 2018, later than expected in July because of "recent strength in the Canadian dollar."

The Canadian dollar, which dropped 0.7 percent after the statement, is still the best performing since early May, gaining 9 percent over that time. It has pared some of those gains in recent weeks as policy makers including Poloz began to highlight concerns about the appreciation.

“Today’s statement is clearly a move to a more dovish stance by Bank of Canada, and we find strong support to keep our forecast for a next move higher in rate to come only by the spring of 2018,” Nick Exarhos, an economist at CIBC Economics, said in a note to investors.

Eyes Turn to Sunday’s Japan Election
[2017-10-20   04:51 GMT]

Winner is: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

Yen declines 0.5 percent to 113.13 per dollar as all eyes turn to Sunday’s Japan election. Japan’s equity benchmarks pared losses as U.S. equity-index futures climbed and the yen declined, unwinding gains from the previous day.

Japan goes to the polls on Sunday with a win tipped for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Victory could pave the way for him to govern Japan until 2021.

Only a few months ago his popularity tumbled over a series of cronyism scandals, prompting some allies to weigh challenging him as party leader. Then a cabinet reshuffle and North Korean missile launches over Japan helped stop the bleeding, giving him a window to secure a fresh mandate that could end up making him the country’s longest serving prime minister.

A convincing victory would also keep in place the ultra-easy monetary policy that weakened the yen, propped up exports and helped stocks rise to heights not seen since before the financial crisis. Diplomatic policies, including cozying up to President Donald Trump to keep the U.S. alliance strong in the face of North Korea’s threat, will also be maintained.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s early election gamble looks like it will pay off.

 

Revitalizing the American Economy: US Budget Resolution & Major Tax Cuts,
[2017-10-20   04:45 GMT]

The Senate adopted a fiscal 2018 budget resolution Thursday that House GOP leaders agreed to accept, a show of unity aimed at speeding consideration of President Donald Trump’s plan to enact tax cuts. The budget cleared the Senate 51-49, with all Democrats and Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky voting against it.

Treasuries fell and the dollar climbed after the latest developments in Washington raised the chances for American tax cuts. The budget still has to pass the House, but near term, it should be supportive for the dollar.

"This resolution creates a pathway to unleash the potential of the American economy through tax reform and tax cuts, simplifying the overcomplicated tax code, providing financial relief for families across the country, and making American businesses globally competitive," the White House said in a statement after the vote.

IMF & World Bank,
[2017-10-16   11:00 GMT]

Don’t celebrate too soon. That was the key message as policy makers and investors left Washington on Sunday after attending the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde urged officials to act now to build buffers for the next downturn. In that spirit, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said given Chinese companies had taken on too much debt “we need to pay further effort to deleveraging and strengthen policy for financial stability.”

Politics could still spoil the party. Less than five miles away from the IMF meetings, Mexican and Canadian officials were absorbing tough proposals by the U.S. which could end up destroying the North American Free Trade Agreement.

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond fought back calls from home for his resignation for being too gloomy about Brexit, while executives from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned they are preparing for the worst-case scenario. Catalonia may still try to leave Spain and Austrian nationalists are closing in on power after elections on Sunday.

The World Economic Forum estimates the globe needs $2.5 trillion more in financing to reach the United Nations’s sustainable development goals.

BOE: This Week is Prerequisite,
[2017-10-16   10:53 GMT]

Follow carefully the sterling data of this week from inflation to wage and retail figures as they will determine the exact timing when BOE will commit a rate hike. Higher inflation and strongish retail sales should establish the route to the increase in the benchmark.
Markets have priced in around an 80 percent chance of a 25 basis-point increase on Nov. 2, which would reverse the cut put in place after the Brexit vote in 2016. Pricing suggests at least one more hike in 2018, though many economists suggest that’s too aggressive and expect a lengthy pause after the first move.


The BOE’s new tone means it’s joining the U.S. Federal Reserve in what’s becoming a global central bank shift away -- albeit very slowly -- from the ever-more loosening that’s defined policy since the financial crisis. The Fed may raise its key rate again in December, the European Central Bank is debating how and when to scale back its bond purchases, and some lawmakers are pressuring the Bank of Japan to discuss unwinding its own easing program.

The $10,000 of Bitcoin isn’t any soon,
[2017-10-13   08:34 GMT]

Bitcoin is going to be a very volatile asset for a long time. The road is sure to be rocky as bitcoin’s volatility is 10 times that of gold.

The digital currency’s surge has divided the financial community between those convinced it is a bubble on the verge of popping, like billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio said, while other big-name investors like Mark Cuban and Mike Novogratz said they’re investing in the sector.

Keep wary eyes on China & Russia interferences on Crypto Currencies – they are the leaders!

 

New regulations will cause a ‘sell’

Easing regulations will cause a ‘buy’

 

Dollar Long Term of Short Term
[2017-10-13   08:26 GMT]

Dollar dilemma is locked in. Buying the dollar ahead of newly FED appointment or selling the current rally? Over the long term, dollar bearish sentiment remains unchanged (as per weekly chart). On the other hand, the current dollar rally depicts a maneuverability in trend continuation once a close above 94.00 is triggered. In parallel, the decent south exposure of this week pertains a known phenom called retracement, i.e. buy the dip. A 9-month downsloping trendline of this year has been broken and it is very likely that it would act as support at the reading of 92.00-92.50.

In summary, it’d be foolish to depreciate the dollar unless, stocks which are at record highs, the super strong labor market, the clearest inflation signs in years, and the dollar that made a clean break with the 9-month downtrend, change course.

Bitcoin Everywhere
[2017-10-13   08:00 GMT]

Bubble! What bubble? No bubble folks! It is what it is! Call it Mania of Wall Street backed by China’s Street.

The woke-up call today shows bitcoin playing the threshold of $5850, being said that a close above $5,000 will keep the track towards $7,000.

Analysts, bankers, financial intermediaries, specs, all wonder when bitcoin’s fantasy will be destroyed whilst their realistic intentions is in the form of daily prayer “please don’t burst my bubble.”

Wanted Dead or Alive: Turkish Lira
[2017-10-13   07:48 GMT]

The second week of October started with a crash in the Turkish Lira, one of the biggest drop since the ‘failed Coup’ on tit-for-tat visa suspensions with the United States. Traders scrambled Monday morning the 9th of October as Turkey’s lira plunged, turning off live platform pricing and restricting quotes amid volatility caused by rising tensions between the U.S. and its NATO ally.

Not only the Lira was killed this week with the biggest drop of 4% where the trigger at the start of the trading week’s session was the U.S. and Turkey each suspending visa services for citizens looking to visit the other country, but also within a year we have witnessed two other crashes: the pound’s flash crash and the South African rand’s plunge. All in all, this is to certify that the $5T a day foreign exchange is fragile.

Tensions aroused when first Turkish police on Wednesday the 4th of October arrested a local employee of the US embassy in Istanbul and charged him with espionage and an attempt to overthrow the government, which was following on Sunday afternoon by the US embassy in Turkey announcing that "effective immediately" it has "suspended all non-immigrant visa services at all U.S. diplomatic facilities in Turkey.”

The market get nervous, and in early and illiquid FX trading, the TRY has tumbled to as low as 3.85 per dollar.

The visa ban puts Turkey in the same boat as Chad, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen, all of which have had travel restrictions imposed on them by U.S. this year. The Trump administration says visitors from those nations could be terrorists. Turkey’s case is an isolated case so it’s unlikely that there will be a durable contagion into the rest of emerging markets.

Our Long Term Perspective stays in good shape targeting USDTRY @ 10 within less than 4 years as the US will not leave Turkey in the Lalaland enjoying the recent Russia-Iran-China allies switch.

The Forget Scene,
[2017-10-10   09:24 GMT]

Forget Gold!

Wait…nah!!! Forget Bitcoin!

Oh! No! No! No! forget both as gemstones are hedge against volatility – Let’s do it: Diamond.

An exchange in Singapore is starting to trade a credit card-sized package of diamonds for those seeking a shelter from global risks. the Singapore Diamond Investment Exchange is listing a product called Diamond Bullion, or sets of investment-grade polished gems, in denominations of about $100,000 and $200,000 each.

“Until now, there was no way people could invest in diamonds in the form which is equivalent to investing in gold,” said Alain Vandenborre, executive chairman and founder of the exchange. “A diamond has absolutely zero correlation with any other asset class, whether it’s commodities, bonds, equities. It’s a store of wealth, it’s a hedge against volatility and you need that in your portfolio.”

The exchange plans to list other denominations in future, and the interest they attract could boost trading volumes and global prices, he said. The products are fungible and tradeable, with real-time pricing available from the exchange website or the mint’s mobile app, the bourse said in a statement.

 

Crude Oil,
[2017-10-10   05:27 GMT]

As stated, the $49 is very crucial this week if it holds a weekly close.

Targets classified as 54.14 and 60.33 should be triggered as long as $47 stays in good shape.

Close below $47 hints a fast drawing wave towards $41.20.

***Saudi Aramco plans to make “the deepest customer allocation cuts in its history” in oil supplies in November to help reduce global inventories and balance the market.

State-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Aramco, will make an “unprecedented” cut of 560,000 barrels a day in its allocations to customers next month, the Saudi energy ministry said in a statement. Aramco plans to supply 7.15 million barrels a day “despite very strong demand” that exceeds 7.7 million barrels a day, it said.

“Saudi Arabia is once again demonstrating extraordinary leadership in its commitment to re-balancing the market, as we approach the upcoming key meeting of November 30 in Vienna, by restraining not only the top-line of production volume, but even more importantly the bottom line of exports, which are what ultimately shape global inventories and market balances,” the ministry said. “The kingdom expects all other participants in the effort to follow suit and to maintain the high levels of overall conformity achieved in August going forward.”***

Gold Trade,
[2017-10-10   04:49 GMT]

As already mentioned, Gold bullish trade is kept alive as long as no close below 1250 is triggered. Last week, specifically on Friday, Gold tested the nerves of supports yet afterwards it shot up to the sky. The repetitive scenario is keeping the 1250 safe to keep the bull farm out of hurricanes.

Donald Trump: the calm before the storm
[2017-10-10   04:41 GMT]

The Iran nuclear deal's unraveling could become a full-on crisis.

The U.S. commander-in-chief informed the nation on Thursday evening that a meeting he was having with military brass might be "the calm before the storm" that Donald Trump briefed reporters about. It's possible he meant nothing; you may recall he blithely undercut the $3.8 trillion muni-bond market this week with a choice remark about Puerto Rico's debt getting "wiped out." (Yeah? Nah.)

Yet there is a storm looming in the shape of a decision about the nuclear deal with Iran. On October 15, the administration must either re-certify that Tehran is complying with its terms and that the suspension of sanctions remains vital to U.S. national security -- or not.

An oil market seemingly benumbed to geopolitics -- prices slumped on Friday -- risks being caught out by a crisis. Though not necessarily in the way that deadline suggests.

Even so, a decision not to re-certify wouldn't mean an immediate breach. Instead, it would represent that most practiced of maneuvers in American politics: tossing the issue to Congress.

Legislators would then have 60 days to pass fast-track legislation -- no filibusters -- re-imposing sanctions on Iran.

One thing I learned in the Army is that when your opponent is on his knees, you drive him to the ground and choke him out.

While this means that, on its own, the October 15 deadline shouldn't necessarily jolt the oil market, it tees up a potential crisis in 2018.

The key date is January 12. That's when another deadline rolls around, this time for the president to continue waiving sanctions against Iran, as the U.S. is obliged to do under the deal. He could decide to not waive them regardless of what he does on October 15.

Yet Iran's government appears unlikely to agree to big changes, in part so as not to lose face domestically, but also because the coalition that enforced sanctions so well in the years leading up to 2015 likely wouldn't hold. China and Russia are obvious spoilers. But even nominal allies in Europe, which account for half the recovery in Iran's oil exports, may be reluctant to follow America's lead:

 

 

 

 

Oil Rally Or Correction?
[2017-10-10   04:36 GMT]

Was $50 a barrel for oil just a passing fancy?

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, skyrocketed above $52 a barrel at the end of September, teasing investors. But the rally didn’t last long. After hedge funds sliced their net-long position on WTI and pulled back from record bets on rising Brent prices, oil had slipped as low as $49.10 on Friday. The rally went too far and it was just time for correction. The $49 is a confluence point between MA50 and MA200.

Saudi King Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked up their supply-cut deal in a historic meeting in Moscow, suggesting it could be extended, but with so many signs pointing to a glut, their boost to prices was short-lived.

Oil’s had a heck of a run for the month of September. The continued concerns in the market that keeps the shorts active: Is OPEC compliance waning? Will their compliance start to be less? Will they start to cheat more?”

China & US Eye Coal
[2017-10-10   04:28 GMT]

When China halted plans for more than 100 new coal-fired power plants this year, even as US President Donald Trump vowed to "bring back coal" in America, the contrast seemed to confirm Beijing's new role as a leader in the fight against climate change.

However, new data on the world's biggest developers of coal-fired power plants paints a very different picture: China's energy companies will make up nearly half of the new coal generation expected to go online in the next decade.

These Chinese corporations are building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, some in countries that today burn little or no coal.

The fleet of new coal plants would make it virtually impossible to meet the goals set in the Paris climate accord. Electricity generated from fossil fuels such as coal is the biggest single contributor globally to the rise in carbon emissions, which scientists agree is causing the earth's temperatures to rise.

The United States may also be back in the game. Last Thursday, Mr Trump said he wanted to lift Obama-era restrictions on US financing for overseas coal projects as part of an energy policy focused on exports. "We have nearly 100 years' worth of natural gas and more than 250 years' worth of clean, beautiful coal," he said. "We will be dominant. We will export American energy all over the world, all around the globe."

Light Trading But Busy Week
[2017-10-10   04:24 GMT]

Tuesday: Bi-Annual IMF World Economic Outlook

Wednesday: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook STEO & OPEC Monthly

Thursday: IEA Market Report: Oil

 

Oil Inventories Are Set To Plunge 50 Million Barrels By December: The current oil price of ~$49.00 is in no way pricing in what could be an inventory draw from October to December that is over 160x the average seasonal draw for this period over the past 14 years, or by a total amount of 50 million barrels. While this may sound extreme, it is important to note that 2017 so far has seen similarly impressive results. From 2003 to present, the average seasonal build year-to-date has been about 14 million barrels.

 

What Strategists Say about Euro Weakness
[2017-10-03   08:35 GMT]

UniCredit: while the “the fundamental tailwind is definitely not as strong as it used to be” for the euro, he remains bullish and sees fair-value at $1.24-$1.25

ING: ECB policy normalization story “provides a backstop to the euro. Unlike prior occasions when European political risks have flared, we now have the tailwind of an ECB looking to tighten -- or normalize -- monetary policy.” This should keep EUR/USD supported around 1.17 -- although a break of this could see a deeper technical correction toward 1.15-1.16.

Mizuho International: The Spanish economy “is in very good shape, so uncertainty at the national government level should not be too damaging from a macro perspective.” EUR/USD is probably the “clearest indicator of current market sentiment to EUR tail risks. Watch 1.1715 as an important support.”

Credit Agricole CIB: While the euro started Monday on a weak footing after the Catalonia vote, “looking ahead, we do not expect the latest development to have sustainable market impact.” While growth momentum remains strong enough to support a more hawkish ECB stance, it remains attractive to buy EUR dips. Keep long EUR/USD and EUR/CHF as trade recommendations

Commerzbank AG: The situation in Spain “is a bit more messy than most had thought, including us,” however, the fallout should stay limited.” Catalonia “will clearly dominate the headlines near-term, but the more important longer-term developments will be Germany/EU, and Italy.

Ahead of Non Farm Payroll,
[2017-10-03   08:25 GMT]

The dollar struck a 1-1/2-month high on Tuesday as Treasury yields rose after a strong reading for U.S. manufacturing activity hardened expectations for U.S. interest rates to rise by the year-end.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was up 0.3 percent at 93.847 after touching 93.891, its highest since Aug. 17.

“The dollar is drawing support from familiar themes. The Fed continues to sound hawkish, U.S. indicators are good and price indicators are rising;” all these factors are cementing the prospect of a December rate hike by the Fed.

The common currency had already slid 0.7 percent overnight against a data-boosted dollar. The euro also took a knock on Monday as Spain faced its biggest constitutional crisis in decades after Sunday’s independence referendum in Catalonia.

The impact on the euro from the Catalonia vote is likely to fade. Other euro zone markets, like those in Germany, have taken the vote in their stride. Wanting independence and actually achieving it are also two different matters.

The dollar, which initially slipped to 112.660 yen early in the session, was up 0.3 percent at 113.080 yen. A rise above 113.260 would take the greenback to its highest since mid-July.

The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates on hold at a record low of 1.5 percent with the focus on its assessment of the economy and how that could impact is monetary policy.

Crypto War
[2017-10-03   08:19 GMT]

Bitcoin traders can breathe a sigh of relief. If JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s CEO Jamie Dimon fires them for trading the cybercurrency, Goldman Sachs Group could welcome them with open arms.

Goldman is reportedly considering a new operation dedicated to buying and selling digital currencies. Goldman would be the first large Wall Street firm to explicitly have a bitcoin trading desk, and the news seemed to legitimize the currency less than a month after Dimon called it a "fraud" and said that he would fire anyone stupid enough to trade it. Indeed, prices of bitcoin, which many people already thought were in a bubble, rose $193 on Monday to $4,365 each. That's up from $952 at the beginning of the year, for a staggering 360 percent return in 2017 alone. The S&P 500 is considered to be having a great year. It's up 15 percent, including dividends.

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ForexSurvivor provides optimal Entry/Exit points in real-time, staying on top of the market and trades 24 hours a day, 5 days a week.

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