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Pound The Week,
[2018-06-18   10:00 GMT]

The pound began the week on the back foot as it faces political turmoil amid the Conservative Party’s ongoing internal battle over Brexit.

GBPCHF might have its plummet paused for now; the factor of retracement of 76% has materialized at the end of May for March’s rally. In June, the cross is graphing an ascending triangle at the 4hr chart. A close above 1.3280 will target the descending TL at 1.3400+. Close below last month’s low negate.

ECB HALTS NET ASSET PURCHASES
[2018-06-14   11:53 GMT]

ECB will end its bond-buying program by the end of December, Announces end of QE, taper to €15bn from Oct until end of Dec, and keepS interest rated unchanged until mid-2019.

"Bund yields and the Euro briefly spiked higher. however, just as we noted in the preview " That said, when everyone is confident that one thing will happen, don't be surprised to see the EUR tumble..." it appears the positioning is backfiring and investors are selling the news in Euro."

Draghi may announce the beginning of the end of QE
[2018-06-14   11:15 GMT]

What To Expect from ECB?

  • Unanimous expectations for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
  • Will the ECB unveil its blueprint for winding down the PSPP or will they again ‘kick the can down the road’ to July?
  • Questions likely to be raised on the Bank’s view surrounding the latest developments in Italian politics
  • Macro projections likely to see oil prices curtail 2018 growth expectations whilst lifting inflation prospects
USDCHF
[2018-06-14   08:16 GMT]

USDCHF,

THE RALLY FROM 0.9200 IN FEB WAS PAUSED NEAR PAR IN MAY, A CRITICAL PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL.

DOLLAR WILL ATTEMPT RALLYING AGAIN TO STAY ABOVE PAR FOR YEARS. THOUGH FOR NOW, LET’S WORK ON THE SHORT TERM ENVIRONMENT:

THE DISTANCE THAT IS MARKED IN BLUE, OUTSIDE THE CHANNEL, IS EQUIVALENT – MEANING, A DROP IN USDCHF CAN’T BE HALTED BEFORE 0.9720 – AN INTERESTING BULLISH LEVEL.

THE EXTENSION OF THE DROP MAY SPIKE TOWARDS 0.9500 FOR A BRIEF STAY BEFORE RALLYING AGAIN; IF THAT SPIKE HAPPENS, THEN AN ADD AT 0.9500 IS ON THE NOTE.

CLOSE BELOW 0.9450 NEGATE THE BULLISH STANCE!

FOMC HIKES QUARTER POINT
[2018-06-14   06:59 GMT]

FED RAISES RATES, MEDIAN FORECAST SIGNALS TWO MORE 2018 HIKES. Federal Reserve forecasts unemployment will fall to 3.6% this year, the lowest since 1969 (In March, the Fed projected 3.8%). GDP expected to hit 2.8% (up from a 2.7% forecast in March). Core inflation now expected to hit 2% this year

Big change in the Fed statement when the Fed deleted the entire final paragraph that used to say interest rates were likely to remain low "for some time." 

Fed Chair Powell will have a press conference after every meeting starting in January 2019.

Powell: Monetary policy affects everyone and wants to give plain English view of economy. Says it is doing well, with unemployment remaining low. Gradual rate increases needed as economy stabilizes.

Powell puts it in plain English: "The main takeaway is that the economy is doing very well. Most people who want to find jobs are finding them and unemployment and inflation are low." 

SANCTION LIFTED
[2018-06-13   10:26 GMT]

 

North Korea Says Trump Agreed to Lift Sanctions After Meeting

G7
[2018-06-11   10:33 GMT]

Speaking at the G7 summit in Quebec, the US president claimed the EU had been economically “brutal” to America “and they understand that... they can’t believe they got away with it [for so long]”.

He said: “It has got to change – if it is not going to change, we are not going to trade with them.” And Mr Trump warned world leaders: “We [the US] are like the piggy bank that everyone is robbing – and that ends.

“If [other countries] retaliate they are making a mistake... they do so much more business with us than we do with them that we can’t lose. We win that war 1,000 times out of 1,000.”

(express)

SILVER,
[2018-05-31   06:54 GMT]

SILVER CALLS MARGIN: THIS INACTIVE INSTRUMENT HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATED IN AN UGLY TRIANGLE SQUEEZE, LEAVING NO SPACE FOR FUN.

IT IS IN JUNE THE EXPLOSION AS CHARTED BY MONTHLY BARS. DAILY CLOSE < 15.78 DISAPPOINTS BULL FARM. DAILY CLOSE >17.40 BRINGS COMFORT TO THE FARM

BITCOIN,
[2018-05-29   10:24 GMT]

TAKE A SEAT & PRAY DAY AND NIGHT FOR THIS CRYPTO DOES NOT LOCK A MONTHLY CLOSE BELOW 6,000. DESCENDING TRIANGLE IS A REVERSAL PATTERN, A WASH OUT IS EXPECTED TO 3,000 THE LEAST.
TRIANGLE TARGET 74.00, YES NOT 74,000 AS PUNDITS HAD ANALYZED.

GAUGE -DOLLAR INDEX,
[2018-05-29   09:37 GMT]

RALLY SINCE 2014 HAS BEEN RETRACED PERFECTLY IN 2018 AT 61.8% FIB LINE.

BLUE RECTANGLE IS YOUR MEASURE FOR THE BUY OR SELL.

CLOSE ABOVE THE BLUE RECTANGLE WILL TAKE YOU TO THE SKY; BELOW, HELL EXISTS.

DON’T TRADE BEYOND THIS RECTANGLE’S RULE.

(EURO BEARS JUST STARTED - RALLY TO 1.2 IS SELLABLE BY THE FORTH QUARTER 2018)

CRUDE OIL WTI,
[2018-05-29   09:04 GMT]

TECHNICALLY, ASCENDING TRIANGLE HAS COMPLETED ONLY 65% & LEFT INCOMPLETE 35% FROM REACHING TARGET. RIGHT NOW MARKET IS TESTING ASCENDING TRIANGLE'S TOP. I WOULD BE LOOKING FOR A BUY TO COMPLETE TARGET IF OPPORTUNITY IS GIVEN. FOR NOW, DON’T DARE TOUCHING

EURUSD,
[2018-05-29   05:01 GMT]

EURUSD WEEKLY RECTANGLE HAS PERFORMED AMAZINGLY. THE WIDTH OF THE RECTANGLE (IGNORE THE TAILS) OF 1,017PIPS HAS ITS TARGET MET AT 1,017PIPS WITHOUT TRIGGERING A CLOSE BEYOND.

EURO PREVIOUS TOP RECTANGLE AT 1.1447 IS TO BE TESTED BEFORE ANY SERIOUS RALLY (IF ANY)

EURGBP,
[2018-05-29   04:37 GMT]

THE DESCENDING TRIANGLE (BLUE) WITHIN THE REGRESSION CHANNEL & WITHIN ANOTHER DESCENFING TRIANGLE (RED) INDICATE THAT AN AVALANCHE IS IN THE OFFING. BEARS ARE TO BE KEPT PROTECTED BELOW THE REDDISH TL, TARGETING A YEARLY LOWER LOW, THEN 0.83

*BY THE WAY, IT IS THE ONLY CROSS THAT DIDN’T YET COLLAPSE

USDCAD PART II,
[2018-05-22   09:00 GMT]

Yesterday, we have posted USDCAD tactical trend vision once a daily close beyond is locked.

Today, we will post a pre-mature trading decision, based on further helpful technical demonstrations, why the hunt target would be 1.2610 and not 1.3030.

  1. CAD and Oil are like horse and carriage, even though sometime the link between them is broken. The strong correlation between rising in the price of oil and fallen USDCAD is back on stage. (USDCAD DOWN)
  2. Chart 4 hr shows head and shoulder pattern (reddish arcs) (USDCAD DOWN).
  3. The blue rectangle comes from the weekly chart. It is the size of one week, thus imagine it as one bar. The blue rectangle versus the green rectangle on the left mark a BEARSIH ENGULFING where price traded above the rectangle and ended the week trading and closing below it. (USDCAD DOWN).
  4. Last week, USDCAD retraced twice (double top, yellow rectangle) below the 76.4% fib line of the bearish engulfing pattern, without closing above 61.8% fib line. Failing to complete full retracement twice is another indicator for the south vision (USDCAD DOWN).
  5. On Friday, the market rallied. On Monday, the market retraced in full Monday’s rally and closed below Friday’s low. (USDCAD DOWN).
  6. Today, Europe’s session, 4hr market closed @1.2750 below the final upsloping TL (USDCAD DOWN).
  7. Combining the information of yesterday’s memo and today’s, one should follow through.

Take it or leave it!

USDCAD PART I,
[2018-05-21   11:45 GMT]

TAKEN THE COMMON GROUND BETWEEN THE ORIGINAL OLD RECTANGLE AND THE EXTENDABLE RECTANGLE THOUGH STAYING WITHIN THE LINEAR REGRESSION CHANNEL SINCE THE MARKET TOOK CONSOLIDATION CYCLE ON THE 24TH OF APRIL.

THE BATTLE IS BETWEEN THE TRIGGER OF A FALSE CUT OF LAST WEEK AND THE CLUSTER OF RESISTANCES, MAINLY THE 1.2930

A DAILY CLOSE BELOW THE FALSE CUT AREA OR ABOVE THE 1.2930 RESISTANCE DETERMINES THE NEXT TRENDING PATTERN OF 130PIPS, BE IT 1.2610 OR 1.3030 RESPECTIVELY.

USDJPY
[2018-05-18   08:58 GMT]

YEN COLLAPSE TO CONTINUE TOWARDS A NEW 3-YEAR TL TEST. WHILE THE PAIR HAS BREACHED 2 TLs FROM BELOW, THE PRICE STAMPEDED BETWEEN THOSE TLs ONLY TO RALLY WITH AN INCLINATION OF 30°. USDJPY RALLY IS UNSTOPPABLE BEFORE 112

Bitcoin Theory: Foolish!
[2018-05-08   04:52 GMT]

Cryptocurrencies’ prices fell on Tuesday following criticism from Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett and co founder of Microsoft Bill Gates on Monday.

Bitcoin was trading at $9,431.6 by 11:25PM ET (03:25GMT) on the Bitfinex exchange, down 1.2% over the previous 24 hours.

Ethereum, the world’s second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, down 3.5% at $754.03 on the Bitfinex exchange.

XRP/USD’s XRP token traded 3.0% lower to $0.83106 on the Poloniex exchange.

Meanwhile, Litecoin slid 1.9% to $166.02.

Warren Buffett told CNBC in an interview that the “asset itself (Bitcoin) is creating nothing.”

"When you're buying nonproductive assets, all you're counting on is the next person is going to pay you more because they're even more excited about another next person coming along," Buffett said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box”.

In the same interview on Monday, Bill Gates echoed Buffett’s comment and said that he would bet against the virtual currency if he could.

"As an asset class, you're not producing anything and so you shouldn't expect it to go up. It's kind of a pure 'greater fool theory' type of investment," Gates said. "I would short it if there was an easy way to do it."

Buffett also called Bitcoin “probably rat poison squared” over the weekend.

Bitcoin Fashionista
[2018-05-04   08:45 GMT]

Stop dreaming about making millions in #bitcoin alone. Cryptocurrency has adopted same charts as every instrument in the market from Euro to Dow Jones to Oil to Gold to Dollar. There are no changes in its trading sensation. It consists of Open, Close, High, Low. It could trend and could not.

Ask yourself: have you succeeded in the Dow Jones Rally alone since 2015? Your answer fits the current trading of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's Daily Trading Range Falls From $4,700 to $124
[2018-05-04   06:34 GMT]

Volatility might be off the floor in equity markets, but in the crypto world it’s heading down to levels not seen since last fall. The spread between Bitcoin’s daily high and low price has trended back toward $100. That’s a steep drop from December, when prices saw a record swing of about $4,700 in a single day (Bloomberg)

BITCOIN,
[2018-05-04   06:17 GMT]

WHEN YOU ARE IN A GREY ZONE, TRADE THE GREY ZONE (UP)

WHEN YOU ARE IN A BLUE ZONE, TRADE THE BLUE ZONE (DOWN)

BITCOIN SHOULD TARGET 10500 AS LONG AS 7670 STAYS HEALTHY

MONTHLY CHANGES IN PAYROLLS
[2018-05-04   06:04 GMT]

WILL NON FARM PAYROLL SORT OUT THE CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING TREND LINE AND THE EX-SUPPORT OF THE DOLLAR INDEX?

GBPAUD,
[2018-05-04   05:50 GMT]

THE FIRST RECTANGLE (A) FOR ONE AND HALF MONTH BROKE FROM TOP AND TARGET MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.

THE SECOND RECTANGLE (B) BROKE FROM DOWNSIDE AND PLUMMETING TARGETING 76% FIB LINE @ 1.7800

RALLY SELLABLE & ONLY A CLOSE > TOP OF RECTANGLE (B), MISSION TO BE ABORTED.

USDCAD,
[2018-05-04   05:39 GMT]

IN CORRELATION WITH CRUDE OIL (see previous news),

ALSO A SPLENDID RECTANGLE WAS FORMED THIS WEEK TARGETING 1.30 IF THE TECHNICAL ASPECT OF THE PAUSE AFTER A RALLY IS A CONTINUATION.

CLOSE< 1.28 NEGATES.

CRUDE OIL WTI,
[2018-05-04   05:31 GMT]

TRUMP INTERFERED ON THE 20TH OF APRIL;
PRICE WAS ARRESTED WITHING A RECTANGLE (mauve);
TECHNICALLY, THE BLUE MARKS AN ASCENDING TRIANGLE, MEANING RALLY IS YET TO BE CONSUMED.

TRADE MAUVE RECTANGLE - TARGET 72.50; EXIT < 66

BOND YIELDS ON THE RISE,
[2018-04-23   08:16 GMT]

The geopolitical concerns are easing giving a serious gold outlook: rally has already run out of steam below 1370. The south vision should be exploited from now on targeting 1307 and 1250 respectively as long as 1370 triggers no close above. Such close would mean war is back with vengeance somewhere in Syria or N. Korea, an unlikely scenario.

EURUSD HOURLY,
[2018-04-16   06:11 GMT]

A. ONE-HOUR CHART

MOMENTUM IMPLIES STANDBY MODE TILL THE REDDISH BORDERS ARE PUNCTURED.

IT’D BE TOO GOOD TO BREAK THE DOWNSLOPING TL TO FINALIZE WITH THE TOP OF THE SQUEEZED TRIANGLE

DON’T UNDERESTIMATE THE NOISE OF THE FALSE-BREAK

EURUSD DAILY
[2018-04-16   06:10 GMT]

DAILY CHART

A SQUEEZED TRIANGLE IS BEING DEVELOPED BELOW 61% FIB LINE OF THE LANDSLID SINCE 2014

IN 2017, PRICE ACTION WAS RALLYING

IN 2018, CONGESTION FORMING SQUEEZED TRIANGLE

TECHNICALLY, A TRIANGLE AFTER A RALLY HINTS THAT TOP IS YET TO BE PINNED

EURUSD WEEKLY,
[2018-04-16   06:09 GMT]

WEEKLY/MONTHLY CHART (14-YEAR)

MARKET IS TESTING THE NECKLINE OF THE DESCENDING TRIANGLE TARGETING 0.8000

A Plethora of ‘Movers,’
[2018-04-06   10:39 GMT]

Will the monthly changes in US payrolls cause volatility to its extremes or Jap Powell’s speech will do the job? In between, we have the employment change that would be released by the statistics of Canada as well. Pay attention to Powell’s speech, it is the real shaker after the Canadian report. All in all, Dollar stays strong and any blip during the day should be translated as BTFD.

China Fires Back,
[2018-04-04   10:46 GMT]

China retaliates so life becomes difficult for Apple, Boeing, Intel and other multinational companies in the Dow and S&P 500 that have started to do more business in the world's most populous nation.

Petrodollar Status,
[2018-04-04   06:49 GMT]

Russia & China are buying oil using the yuan, means major inflation hits the US; Saddam bought oil using the euros. The only solution is WAR.

Trump updated his War Cabinet (Pompeo & Bolton)

Financial War with China started

Disaster relation between Russia & US

MBS, Bolton, Pompeo, Bibi, & Trump have just prepared a cabinet war targeting Iran, Russia, & China to protect the status of the petrodollar. We have seen it in the past (Saddam bought oil using euros).

If Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman calls Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei “the Hitler of the Middle East,” the new national security adviser John Bolton, who wrote an op-ed titled “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran,” has called for preemptive strikes and “regime change,” Secretary of State-designate Mike Pompeo calls Iran “a thuggish police state,” a “despotic theocracy,” and “the vanguard of a pernicious empire that is expanding its power and influence across the Middle East,” Donald Trump himself has pledged to walk away from the Iran nuclear deal — “the worst deal ever” — and reimpose sanctions in May, & Bibi Netanyahu is monomaniacal on Iran, calling the nuclear deal a threat to Israel’s survival and Iran “the greatest threat to our world”

How Funny A Quote Is!
[2018-04-04   06:46 GMT]

.

Jamie Dimon

chief executive officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“It’s a fraud.” If a JPMorgan trader began trading in bitcoin “I'd fire them in a second. For two reasons: It’s against our rules, and they’re stupid. And both are dangerous.”

Price on quote date $4,179.95

Crypto Finance,
[2018-04-04   06:43 GMT]

The financial system remains "one bad trade away" from a total meltdown and cryptocurrency is creating so much noise distracting investors from understanding it, misleading them onto plethora of definitions. 

From China and Russia to North America, virtual is the reality. It’s no longer a question of whether cryptocurrency will survive. It’s a question of what it will disrupt on its way to the top of the global finance chain.

Adopting Blockchain As A National Security Concern
[2018-04-04   06:39 GMT]

If America wants to maintain her empire, she better adopts blockchain technologies, as what it appears to be the future strategy of the Department of Defense.

The ability of the United States Air force USAF to prevail in the highly contested environment of 2040 will be dictated by its ability to defend cyber-enabled systems, and the data within them, from compromise and manipulation. Yet contemporary cyber defense is faltering, and incremental improvements seem unlikely to overcome an exponentially growing cyber threat. Thus, an entirely new model for cyber defense strategy is needed.

Blockchains are a new information technology that inverts the cyber security paradigm. First, blockchain networks are trustless; they assume compromise of the network by both insiders and outsiders. Second, blockchains are transparently secure; they do not rely on failure-prone secrets, but rather on a cryptographic data structure that makes tampering both exceptionally difficult and immediately obvious. Finally, blockchains networks are fault tolerant; they align the efforts of honest nodes to reject those that are dishonest.

As a result, blockchain networks not only reduce the probability of compromise, but also impose significantly greater costs on an adversary to achieve it. The Air Force should research and develop blockchain technology and leverage it for national defense.  

Dollar Screams Higher
[2018-04-04   06:38 GMT]

As Newton’s first law of motion states: an object in motion stays in motion unless acted by a countervailing force. While it is not clear what it will take to arrest the dollar’s slide, it is worth remembering that consensus opinions can quickly change. When the crowd goes from wise to wrong, the ramifications are significant and far-reaching.

What Catalysts?
[2018-04-04   06:35 GMT]

During this NFP Week, pay attention on Friday to CAD report when NFP report is released – volatility this week at the start of QII should be immensely different!

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