Spot the ease as Descending Triangle is patterned
The big data point for markets today is U.S. inflation for February, with analysts expecting a 2.2 percent increase from a year earlier. Core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 1.8 percent. While any surprise in the data is unlikely to derail a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, it will feed into expectations on the pace of monetary tightening.
The chart points to a bullish continuation as Cup with handle on the short term chart seems appropriate. The cup already retraced 61% Fib line and the handle is approaching the descending trend line, hinting for a breakout above 1.3940.
A close above 1.3940 should target 1.4120 and a close below the bottom of the cup negates the hot formation.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is due to testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time this morning, with the text of his testimony due for release at 8:30 a.m. Powell, in his first appearance in Congress since he took over as Fed Chair from Janet Yellen, is likely to say that the economy is stronger than expected, with fiscal stimulus working against attempts to use monetary policy to tap the brakes. It is unlikely that he will give many hints as to the pace of rate increases for this year, ahead of the FOMC update to its economic forecasts next month.
It is not just Powell that markets need to keep an eye on today, with U.S. durable goods orders, and wholesale inventories data released at 8:30 a.m., and consumer confidence for February due at 10:00 a.m. North of the border, it’s budget day in Canada, and with minimal room to entertain new ambitious spending measures. At 2:00 p.m., the Brookings Institute hosts a conversation between former Fed chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke.
USDJPY tumbled to 107.01 - the lowest since Trump's election in Nov 2016 - after a disappointing GDP print signaled the beginning of the end of the 'global synchronous recovery'...
As Goldman Sachs writes, Japanese real GDP growth slowed sharply to +0.5% qoq annualized, representing a sharp slowdown from July-September (+2.2%) and coming in below the market forecast (+1.0%).
The reaction was swift, with USDJPY legging lower, stalling briefly at Sept 2017 lows, before tumbling to 107.01. Yen is the strongest since November 14th 2016 against the dollar.
The 105 & 100 are the focus...
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