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US Avoids Shocking Oil Jump
[2018-11-06   04:35 GMT]


U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he wants to impose sanctions on Iran’s oil gradually, citing concerns about shocking energy markets and causing global price spikes.


“This has nothing to do with Iran... I could get the Iran oil down to zero immediately but it would cause a shock to the market. I don’t want to lift oil prices,”  and “If you notice, oil prices are going down very substantially, despite the fact that already half of their capacity is gone,” adding “it will be a gradual” imposition of oil sanctions,” he told reporters at US Joint Base Andrews in Maryland.


The United States on Monday restored sanctions targeting Iran’s oil, banking and transport sectors and threatened more action, part of a wider effort to curb Tehran’s missile and nuclear programs and diminish the Islamic Republic’s influence in the Middle East, notably its support for proxies in Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. Trump’s moves target Iran’s main source of revenue, its oil exports, as well as its financial sector.


One thing is certain: Europe is angry at the U.S. for unilaterally scuttling the Iran deal and possibly crushing the Iranian economy, which could further destabilize the region and lead to an even greater refugee flow toward Europe. Whatever the outcome, Iran will never submit to Washington’s twelve conditions and is preparing itself for a long siege as Trump is winning a second term.


Technically, Sanction Is Bringing Oil Price to Hell - Not Excluding $20 Within Months, Crude Oil WTI is becoming interesting for a crash

Obstacle I. Double Top ahead of imposing sanction

Obstacle II. Retreat ahead of 61% Fib

Obstacle III. Weekly bearish rising wedge formation

Good Luck!

Dollar Index - Your Error,
[2018-11-01   07:03 GMT]

Click at the RED button at the bottom of the page “Dollar Index Sep 2018.”

The chart clearly states that only a close below 94.00 will drive the next wave towards 92.00.

The type of chart that was selected is Heikin Ashi and not the standard Bars.

By observing the difference, Heikin Ashi didn’t close below 94.00 for five consecutive attempts while the Bars did from the first attempt.

Therefore, you should kindly pay plenty of attention at every single detail before you jump in to conclusions.

Good Luck!

EURNZD Reversal,
[2018-11-01   06:21 GMT]

Has the ascending triangle gotten hammered by the monthly close of October?

Imagine September is one bar (green) and October is another one bar (red). It sounds as a reversal pattern where a new high was triggered in Oct above September’s high, only to be fully reversed and closed the October’s candle below September’s low.

I would say we have a bearish engulfing pattern at the resistance of the ascending triangle and may portend a strong bearish trend targeting at least 1.7000. Rally should be exhausted near 1.7400 and only a close above October’s high negates the pattern.

USDCAD Visit Target: Sky
[2018-10-26   08:01 GMT]

Today, is important for USDCAD to clear the daily trendline and process a new upping wave after the release of BOC benchmark statement.

Equity In The Making,
[2018-10-24   04:22 GMT]

FOR NOW, DOW JONES & SP500 TO STAY BELOW 26000 AND 2805 RESPECTIVELY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK - RALLY SELLABLE. CLOSE ABOVE LEVELS MENTIONED NEGATES BEARS MOVE, AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO BY END MONTH. CORRELATING THE EQUITY WAVE TO A CURRENCY, EURJPY IS SELLABLE NEAR 129.10/50

Trump once again unleashed on the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, during a 30-minute Oval Office interview with the Wall Street Journal, once again blaming the central bank for the market chaos that's erupted over the past few weeks. Ignoring the pleas of his closest advisors and practically every financial professional in the US, the president stepped up his attacks on Powell, telling the chronicle of American capitalism that it's "too early to tell" if he regrets nominating the Fed chairman.

That, of course, cuts against comments made by the president earlier this month when he insisted that he has no intention of firing Powell (though it's unclear whether he would have the authority to remove a sitting Fed chair).

And for those who have until now brushed aside Trump's angry attacks as an example of the president "just venting" over the recent pullback in markets, Trump told WSJ in no uncertain terms that he was "intentionally sending a direct message to Mr. Powell that he wanted lower interest rates."

While the Fed is supposed to be independent "in theory", Trump suggested that he wouldn't keep quiet and let the central bank wreck the economy.

“I’m just saying this: I’m very unhappy with the Fed because Obama had zero interest rates.” Pressed about what he believes is the biggest threat to the US economy, Trump replied: "The Fed" adding that every time he tries to do something great, they spoil the party.

Notably, Trump also referred to the economy as "my economy" and complained that he couldn't be expected to compete with Obama, who benefited from near-zero rates during his entire tenure in office.

 

Disintegrating Latin America
[2018-10-23   05:34 GMT]

Per Reuters, Pompeo warned during a visit to Mexico City that "when China comes calling it’s not always to the good of your citizens".

Though Pompeo clarified that the US has nothing against legitimate Chinese investments. But "when they show up with a straight-up, legitimate investment that's transparent and according to the rule of law, that's called competition and it's something that the United States welcomes," said Pompeo. "But when they show up with deals that extend cheap credit, then seize assets - like they did with a port in Sri Lanka - that will help further the country's neocolonialist ambitions.

Also, Mike Pence centered his criticism of China's economic aggression around the country's strategy of using credit as a tool to entrench its global dominance and further expand its One Belt One Road global development strategy.

On the other hand, the state-run China Daily newspaper said Pompeo’s comments were "ignorant and malicious" and that criticisms surrounding the country's use of "debt traps" were false and accused the US of "trying to drive a wedge" between China and Latin America.

"Relations between China and Latin America are based on mutual respect and equality. As China is winning trust and support from Latin America, the U.S. feels lost and is trying to drive a wedge."

Recently, China has been making inroads that have driven several Latin American countries away from the US sphere of influence. Over the past two years, three Latin American countries - El Salvador, Panama, and the Dominican Republic - have switched diplomatic ties from Taiwan to Beijing. And China's money-for-oil loans have essentially kept Venezuela's disintegrating economy on life support. America's dominance of the region may be nearing its twilight - no matter what Pompeo does or doesn't say.

GBPJPY South,
[2018-10-23   05:09 GMT]

...

Sterling Close
[2018-10-19   08:19 GMT]

 

Sterling Weekly Close Is Important today. A bounce on those supports is needed in order to keep the Ascending triangle in good shape.

AUDUSD Repetitive Action
[2018-10-17   05:42 GMT]

Audusd has a splendid downward channel at the 4hr timeframe. Each downward wave has retraced almost to 76.40% before a new low is shown. If history is to be believed, sell a rally towards 0.7250 for a new low

AUDNZD Head & Shoulder
[2018-10-17   05:41 GMT]

(Update) AUDNZD has managed to close below the base of the rectangles yesterday thus confirming another strong south close after it triggered a wash 2 days ago below 2018 TL. The concerned voice about being bullish which was on standby mode has been erased and concentration is to be moved towards trading the south wave as long as 1.10 holds any bounce.

CHF JPY SUPPORTED 10 Times,
[2018-10-16   07:19 GMT]

A nice daily chart is coming off the ground: CHFJPY has been descending non-stop since it peaked last month at 118.00. this slide has been nowadays in touch with the support band between 113.00 and 113.50. this band has acted before as resistance and was tested 10 times already this year. It could mean that a further fall should be difficult to maintain and correction is viewed a priority. Are you interested to long the cross? Then set your stop if a close below the up sloping trendline (red) is triggered. Collect your greed in pips.

Lira Under Maintenance,
[2018-10-15   09:18 GMT]

Turkish Lira should improve in nowadays cycle after freeing the pastor. The good news between Erdogan and Trump this weekend along with the descending triangle should be translated into targeting 5.40

The $100 and the $25
[2018-10-15   09:16 GMT]

The tensions between Saudi Arabia and United States have left Crude Oil ascending triangle target untouched, at 78.80. Now, the price is back at the previous breakout level near 72.00. This $72.00 is acting as support along with the up sloping trendline, reading $71. A close below $71 should dismiss the rally and pummel would be favored. Stay Tuned!

Gauge of Fear,
[2018-10-12   06:06 GMT]

The monthly chart shows that today VIX would weekly-close for the first time above the downsloping trend line aging 9-year. Coincide this gauge with US Midterms Elections, and here we go: unwinding US stocks is the most valuable instrumental decision you would ever be taking. Good Luck! Hell is Hell and that is famous for the Elites!

IMF & Bitcoin
[2018-10-10   06:03 GMT]

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned the "rapid growth" of bitcoin and cryptocurrency assets could create "new vulnerabilities in the international financial system," as the world's banks adjust to the recent bitcoin and blockchain boom.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, including Ripple Lab's XRP token, ethereum, litecoin, EOS, and stellar, are being examined by the traditional financial system to gauge how they might be integrated as both investment tools and ways to move money across borders more quickly and cheaply.

Excitement around how bitcoin and cryptocurrency technologies, based on the blockchain distributed ledger, has propelled the price of many major cryptocurrencies to stratospheric highs over the last 12 months. Last year, the bitcoin price ballooned from less than $1,000 at the beginning of 2017 to almost $20,000 in December.

The bitcoin price has since fallen sharply back, currently trading at around $6,500, and dragging many of the biggest cryptocurrencies with it — many of them recording 80% declines from their peaks.

"Cybersecurity breaches and cyber attacks on critical financial infrastructure represent an additional source of risk because they could undermine cross-border payment systems and disrupt the flow of goods and services. Continued rapid growth of crypto assets could create new vulnerabilities in the international financial system," according to the fund's latest World Economic Outlook report, out today. Forbes

Going South Bitcoin
[2018-10-10   06:00 GMT]

Bitcoin has traced a bearish flag which indicates that low has not accurately been sealed. Buyers should pay attention to this flag set up as we do not ignore a wave towards the green zone and below to be materialized. Current hour is developing the next wave. Welcome to the South!

EURCHF Clumsy Landing
[2018-10-10   05:42 GMT]

 

 

A picture is worth a thousand words

 

AUDNZD Against HS Pattern
[2018-10-10   05:25 GMT]

There is a nice Head and Shoulder pattern charted with neckline reading 1.0840. The recent congestion as shown in the green rectangle has ended flirting with the upsloping trend (yellow) line of year 2018 then it bounced back to the top of the rectangle. Such a bounce indicates that the rally has not ended yet and the market should levy the price further. Buyers should pay attention at 1.0840 strong fundamental support.

GBPJPY Rectangle,
[2018-10-10   05:25 GMT]

GBPJPY 3-week consolidation at the high of July after a 100% retracement in the form of U-turn indicates two ways: the market is in leeway and it is either heading towards 152.55 or 144.15. The break of the rectangle is what we would be looking for. From our perspective, there is a fight between the daily and the weekly scenario where this battle imposes a trigger of both levels.

EURCAD Retreat,
[2018-10-09   07:19 GMT]

EURCAD retracement has so far reached the below side of the GAP near 1.4950. The retracement has come out of touching the double bottom of the year at 1.4800 where this retreat should continue to close the gap and perform a test of resistance that is marked by August and September low at almost 1.5100 – 1.5070 exact.

Selling 1.5070 is preferable rather than buying current price to satisfy the details of the cross.

European Waves,
[2018-10-08   06:58 GMT]

EURUSD slide of the previous week should not be fading yet, however, that does not mean a rally isn’t going to be ignited. Selling rally is the best approach for today’s squadron and would be happy if 1.1630 is printed to add to the sell phenomenon. A bi-daily close above 1.1630 will negate the splash directed by either of the three expected waves.

Platinum Upping,
[2018-10-08   06:51 GMT]

We like the structure of the bullish set up for the platinum. The pattern is translated into ascending triangle targeting 1000. Yet, we should be wary if a close below 900 is configured.

Dilemma GBPUSD,
[2018-10-08   06:45 GMT]

The behavior of the sterling at the start of the week should be set under standby mode. Currently, the market doesn’t belong to the blue channel neither to the yellow one, an indication that a consolidation framework is in charge.

Let the market clear either side, yellow support or blue resistance in order to evaluate the next wave.

The South of Sterling
[2018-10-04   08:42 GMT]

Counting matters; the power of balance matters. This graph of sterling implies that the pair cannot seal a bottom yet. The counting from the left side of the chart is six, and it shot up in sequence through the formulation of higher lows and higher highs. At the top, the market reversed headily and prepared a 100% reversal approach. The counting on the right side of the chart should balance the counting on the left side. Right now, we are on the making of the forth count and two counts are left to be executed.

NZDUSD
[2018-10-04   08:35 GMT]

Don’t confront the descending channel of the Kiwi which holds over 45 degree angle; it is to head towards an unchartered area on the short time scale. Buyers, say goodbye to your stupid trade and the wash out is coming right at your face!

Bitcoin < 0.00
[2018-10-04   08:33 GMT]

Technically, simply stated, Bitcoin descending triangle remains valid targeting MINUS ONE THOUSAND, meaning below zero level

Copper
[2018-10-04   08:30 GMT]

What happens to copper from September 2017 to September 2018?

It established a base (marked in purple)

This base turned into resistance (marked in red)

Market is holding 38% retracement and might jump to 50% as final touchdown before plummeting again

A close above 3.0 negates the bearish move. Go ahead!

Crude Oil WTI,
[2018-10-03   05:45 GMT]

The chart is simple, actually, very and very simple – check what OPEC says about the happiness of triggering the $80.00 per barrel and check how that price meets a monthly downsloping trendline of 10 years! Really, no further comment is needed!

Dollar Index,
[2018-10-03   05:38 GMT]

The chart is in dilemma where two contracting patterns are identified. In the first pattern, a clear rectangle is traced targeting 97.70 as long as no close below 93.70 is taken. In the second pattern, is assumed to be favoring the bear move, a Head and Shoulder pattern that depicts a target at 90.50 as long as no close above 97.70 is locked.

What do you want to believe is greatly this time up to you! Stay Tuned!

NZDJPY Pause
[2018-10-02   06:41 GMT]

What do you see? An uptrend

What the market is doing recently? Consolidation

Technically, what does it mean? Market is pausing after a huge rally

What’s the next forecast? Usually, the market should rally further once consolidation is terminated

How do we know when the consolidation is off agenda? When a break beyond border is triggered.

Signal: Stand By Mode and let’s wait for a break!

Dollar Index,
[2018-10-02   06:33 GMT]

Our homework is always done at its best. let's revise the chart of the dollar index which was published on the 18th of september 2018 ( red box).
the market hasn't punched a close below 94, thus entrusting a u-turn and the dollar rallied. waiting for the close below 94.00 was greatly necessary to target 92.00.
congrats!

EURUSD Status After FOMC
[2018-09-27   06:11 GMT]

What’s the status of euro after FOMC raised its benchmark?

  1. A rectangle derived within an upward channel
  2. The current price is testing channel’s support
  3. Pinning noisy quadruple tops versus double bottom
  4. Width of the rectangle equals 90 pips

A break of the rectangle’s borders sets up the primarily reason for issuing a signal and reverse accordingly if necessary. Bears target 1.1634 which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the upward channel, while Bulls target 1.1905 which coincides with the resistance of the upward channel.

The common denominator is that both rectangle have each four tops and double bottom and while the first rectangle (lower one) had broken its resistance, the second one is expecting to do the same.

Last, there is an amazing possibility that the price may fall first towards 1.1634 and then rally towards 1.1905 as long as 1.1600 remains our favorable temporarily support.

Iran Oil
[2018-09-26   05:43 GMT]

India Imports Zero Barrel,

India isn’t planning to buy any Iranian oil in November, raising the prospect that Tehran will lose another major customer as U.S. sanctions hit and spurring speculation over whether China will follow suit. It was only about four months ago that India’s foreign minister said that the country won’t adhere to unilateral restrictions and will continue buying Iranian crude.


India is joining other Asian buyers such as South Korea and Japan that have already halted imports from the Persian Gulf state before American restrictions take effect in early November.
It’s unclear if China, the world’s biggest oil importer as well as Iran’s top customer, will persist with purchases. However, China will cut back.


BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley sees the sanctions on the OPEC nation having a bigger impact on the market this time than the previous round of restrictions six years ago.
When Trump in May announced plans to reimpose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, the market estimated a cut of about 300,000 to 700,000 barrels a day, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock said this week. However, the consensus has now moved to as much as 1.5 million barrels as the U.S. is “incredibly serious” about its measures, he said.Bloomberg

AUDUSD LOWER HIGHS
[2018-09-26   05:16 GMT]

AUDUSD is trading at the downsloping trendline of eight months at 0.7270. Once market clears this downsloping resistance, aussie should aim at the next obstacle which reads 0.7450, a resistance which was attacked eight times.

FOMC EURUSD
[2018-09-26   03:47 GMT]

Since 17 May 2018, EURUSD has been trading below 1.1800. in fact, the market has attempted to recover above 1.1800 ten times in the last 4 months. Today is the FOMC's day and today the market will try a final attempt to turn the resistance of 1.1800 into support. It will greatly succeed where afterwards a test towards 50% Fibonacci level 1.1860 and 61.80% at 1.1990 should be in the record as long as no close below 1.1600 is triggered.

USDTRY Target 10, 12
[2018-09-17   11:44 GMT]

on Monday the Turkish currency suddenly tumbled in thin trading on what some attributed was a Reuters reports that Erdogan has asked authorities to scrutinize the board of a major local bank Isbank, with the president reportedly focusing on the role the main Turkish opposition party, the Republic People's Party (CHP) played on that board.

Separately, Bloomberg reported that in an attempt to aid Turkey's ailing banks, the government would unveil measures to help banks tackle the expected pile-up of bad loans resulting from the lira’s plunge and soaring interest rates. Specifically, the plan will seek "to mitigate the need for capital injections and propose carving out non-performing loans" which could be transferred into a state-designated "bad bank."

The plan will be unveiled on Thursday when Erdogan's son-in-law and Turkey's Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, announces a medium-term economic program with fiscal and macroeconomic targets for the next three years.

Shares of Turkish banks rallied on the news. The plan, if confirmed, will be a welcome move for bank investors as even before the currency crisis worsened in August, Turkey’s banks - which recently dumped 20% of their gold to shore up liquidity - were struggling to deal with a pile-up of bad debt and restructurings.

The Week of the Pound
[2018-09-17   07:36 GMT]



The pound kicked off a big week for Brexit talks on an upbeat note, holding above $1.30 and nudging higher again after a dip on Friday. Sterling has been highly sensitive to the risks surrounding a no-deal Brexit in recent months, with a perceived increase in the chances of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal in six months’ time one of the drivers behind a significant increase in bets against the currency during August.

Since the start of September, however, the British currency has climbed as investors have grown more confident a UK-EU agreement could be as little as eight weeks away. Recommended The Big Read Deal or no deal? May’s moment of truth on Brexit 4 hours ago There are signs leaders in Brussels believe a deal is possible — and quickly — but concerns linger it will not be ratified in the UK.

Ahead of a meeting with EU leaders in Salzburg this week, Theresa May has moved to bring wayward Tory Brexiters into line, and curb the ambitions of others — such as former foreign secretary Boris Johnson — ahead of the annual party conference.

The Conservative party leader has said in a BBC interview that MPs will have a choice between her deal, or no deal. Bearish bets against the currency declined in the week to September 11, according to an analysis of data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission by Goldman Sachs.

Non-commercial traders, or firms that speculate on the exchange rate, cut their net short positions in sterling by $0.6bn to $5bn overall. The move by hedge funds, which had been responsible for the extent of the negative sentiment against the pound, was even more pronounced, according to Goldman.

Leveraged funds reduced their net short positions in the pound by around $1.5bn — although they cut their short positions in euro by even more, nearly $3bn. At pixel time, the pound was trading up 0.15 per cent against the dollar on the day at $1.3084 and just under 0.1 per cent higher against the euro at €0.8888. FT

No one knows what Turkey's central bank will do today
[2018-09-13   05:04 GMT]

When Turkey's inflation rate surged to a 15 year-high of 18 per cent earlier this month, the country's central bank vowed to take action at its next rate-setting meeting. That meeting is today, and analysts don't have a clue what the bank will do.

Some believe Turkey could walk back its signals from last week and continue to buck economic orthodoxy by keeping its benchmark rate at 17.75 per cent. Others believe the central bank will go big and announce a 725bp hike, to a rate of 25 per cent. “The lesson of history is that CBRT builds expectations and then under delivers.”

When Turkey's central bank held off from raising interest rates in July, the lira slid dramatically against the dollar: the currency has lost roughly 40 per cent of its value this year. Given the substantial amount of dollar-denominated debt held on Turkish balance sheets, a devaluation of this magnitude makes repayment all the more expensive, so the central bank might hike rates this time around to stabilize the lira.

Much of the confusion about what Turkey's central bank will do stems from uncertainty about how much grip President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has on determining monetary policy.

Considering Erdogan just appointed himself the chairman of the country's $50bn sovereign wealth fund, and appointed his son-in-law turned Finance Minister as deputy, it would not be a complete surprise if the self-avowed “enemy of interest rates” prevails. FT

BoE, ECB and CBRT rate decisions
[2018-09-13   05:00 GMT]

Equity indices across Europe are expected to open lower on Thursday morning ahead of several central bank meetings. Yesterday, White House said that it had invited Chinese officials to restart trade talks. As a result, the dollar struggled to make gains on Thursday while the Chinese yuan held gains.

In Europe, the focus seems to be on monetary policy with three meetings scheduled. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are due to announce their latest decisions at lunchtime in Europe. Analysts are not expecting any changes in policy but will be monitoring the statements carefully.

In Turkey, the central bank is expected to increase interest rates to compensate for the depreciation of the Turkish lira.

Market players will also keep an eye on the U.K. government, with a cabinet meeting scheduled to take place Thursday morning. Prime Minister Theresa May is set to discuss the issue of a no-deal with the European Union over Brexit CNBC

Turkey’s Building Boom Sags
[2018-09-11   10:20 GMT]

Turkey’s construction boom has begun to unravel, threatening to deepen a currency crisis that has sent ripples through global markets and alarmed investors amid a broader emerging markets selloff.

Across Turkey, scores of construction projects have been canceled or frozen in recent months and dozens of companies are straining to pay their foreign-currency debts as the local currency weakens, according to investors and executives in the sector.

Many firms are now selling below construction costs as Turkey’s backlog of unsold houses has swelled to around two million, enough to cover four times average annual new sales.

“The construction sector in Turkey is sick, even on the verge of a coma,” said Tahir Tellioglu, chairman of the Building Contractors Confederation of Turkey, which has 120,000 member companies. “70% of all private construction work has stopped or slowed down.”

Gold And Silver Are Acting Like It's 2008
[2018-09-11   06:09 GMT]

2008 has special significance for gold bugs, both because of the money they lost in August of that year and the money they made in the half-decade that followed. Today’s world is beginning to feel eerily similar.

In 2008 the periphery crisis spread to the core, threatening to kill the brand-name banks that had grown to dominate the US and Europe. The markets panicked, with even gold and silver (normally hedges against exactly this kind of financial crisis) plunging along with everything else. Gold lost about 20% of its market value in a single month. Silver also fell harder than gold, taking the gold/silver ratio from around 50 to above 80 — meaning that it took 80 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold.

The world’s governments reacted to the crisis by cutting interest rates to record lows and flooding the financial system with credit. And precious metals and related mining stocks took off on an epic bull market. So it’s easy to see why the investors thus enriched look back on 2008 with nostalgia.

Now fast forward to Autumn 2018. The global economy is booming because of artificially low interest rates and massive lending to all kinds of subprime borrowers. One group of them – the emerging market countries – made the mistake of borrowing trillions of US dollars in the hope that the greenback would keep falling versus their national currencies, thus giving them a profitable carry trade.

Instead the dollar is rising, threatening to bankrupt a growing list of these countries – which, crucially, owe their now unmanageable debts to US and European banks. The peripheral crisis, once again, is moving to the core.

And once again, gold and especially silver are getting whacked. This morning the gold/silver ratio popped back above the 2008 level.

So are we back there again? Maybe. Some of the big western banks would probably fail if several major emerging markets default on their debts. And historically – at least since the 1990s – the major central banks have responded to this kind of threat with lower rates, loan guarantees and, more recently, massive and coordinated financial asset purchases.

So watch the Fed. If the EM crisis leads to talk of suspending the rate increase program and possibly restarting QE, then we’re off to the races. Just like 2008.

 

 

Bearish Oil
[2018-09-11   06:04 GMT]

A relatively new development in global oil markets has unfolded in recent months, one that has replaced another new development that also has the ability to also roil oil markets. Renewed concerns of a heightened trade war between Washington and Beijing are bringing more pressure on global oil markets than the impending removal of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil due to fresh U.S. sanctions, ushering in two market movers that traders did not have to wrestle with just a few months ago. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude oil producer.

President Trump will likely move ahead this week with more duties for Beijing, putting in place another $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing six people familiar with the matter. The move would mean that around 50 percent of Chinese exports to the U.S. would be subject to extra duties. Beijing, for its part, has threatened to retaliate with $60 billion worth of new duties on U.S. imports to China.

Trump has threatened to up the ante even more, stating recently that he’s ready to put new tariffs on all $505 billion worth of Chinese products imported to the U.S. The problem for China is manifold since it simply can't go toe to toe with the U.S. in a retaliatory tit-for-tat fashion since the U.S. imports nearly five times the dollar value in goods from China than China imports from the U.S. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, China imported only $129.9 billion in U.S. goods last year compared to some $505 billion the U.S. imported from China.

In short, while renewed sanctions against Iran, which kicked in last month, are largely factored into the price of oil, and more sanctions leveled directly against Iran’s energy sector to hit on November 4 seem to be already factored in, trade tensions and lower economic growth and weakened oil demand have yet to run their full course. When, and particularly, how trade tensions will end is anybody’s guess at this point.

September 11, 2018
[2018-09-11   05:57 GMT]

Memory: Crashing into World Trade Center & Pentagon. It's been 17 years since the attacks of September 11, 2001

Goldman Bear-Market Risk Indicator
[2018-09-10   08:19 GMT]

A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. indicator designed to provide a “reasonable signal for future bear-market risk” has risen to the highest in almost 50 years. The firm’s Bull/Bear Index, which is based on measures of equity valuation, growth momentum, unemployment, inflation and the yield curve, is now at levels last seen in 1969. While the gauge is at levels that have historically preceded a bear market, Goldman strategists including Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note last week that a long period of relatively low returns from stocks is a more likely alternative.

Crypto-Mania Collapse Update: $638 Billion Gone
[2018-09-10   06:19 GMT]

Bitcoin is down 68% from its peak, and is back where it was on October 31, 2017

Ethereum collapsed 86% from its peak and is back where it was over 15 months ago

Ripple XRP has collapsed by 92% from its peak on January 4, 2018, and is back where it had been over 15 months ago.

Bitcoin Cash has collapsed 89% from the peak to $469

EOS has collapsed 78% and is back where it had been on December 7

Stellar shot up in six weeks from about 3 cents to 86 cents by January 3, 2018, and has since collapsed 78% to 19 cents

Litecoin peaked on December 18, 2017, at $353 and has now plunged 85%

Of the nearly 2,000 cryptos, there are many that have become worthless and trading volume in them has died down. Even among the larger ones, there are plenty that have plunged 90% or more. In other words, most of that wealth has already vanished or was transferred to sellers who took that hated fiat money and laughed all the way to the hated bank. What remains is a mop-up operation that may drag out for a while, kept alive by some exciting but fleeting moments of hope.

The world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisis
[2018-09-10   06:10 GMT]

Banks must now fund themselves with more equity and less debt. They depend less on trading to make money and on short-term wholesale borrowing to finance their activities. Even in Europe, where few banks make large profits, the system as a whole is stronger than it was. Regulators have beefed up their oversight, especially of the largest institutions that are too big to fail. On both sides of the Atlantic banks are subject to regular stress tests and must submit plans for their own orderly demise. Derivatives markets of the type that felled AIG, an insurer, are smaller and safer. Revamped pay policies should prevent a repeat of the injustice of bankers taking public money while pocketing huge pay-packets—in 2009 staff at the five biggest banks trousered $114bn.

Argentine Credit Line,
[2018-09-06   06:35 GMT]

While Emerging markets crisis has no end in sight, Argentina’s economy minister sounded upbeat on Wednesday about clinching a new deal with the International Monetary Fund after two days of talks in Washington, and said had sought U.S. support for securing approval from the IMF’s board.

The peso ARS=RASL closed 1.38 percent stronger at 38.52 per dollar on Wednesday, marking a rare pause in losses that have shaved more than 50 percent off its value this year, making it one of the worst performing emerging market currencies.

Economy Minister Nicolas Dujovne said he believed a deal to release early disbursements from a $50 billion standby loan agreement with the IMF could be put to its board by the end of the month, helping to shore up investor confidence in Latin America’s third-largest economy.

Argentina has already received $15 billion from the credit line, which was agreed upon in June but has failed to clear up concerns about the country’s ability to pay off its debt.

Dujovne denied a report by local Argentine media outlet Infobae that Argentina was also in talks with the U.S. Treasury Department for a $5 billion to $10 billion credit line. Dujovne said that while Argentine officials had not spoken about direct financing from the United States, he had spoken with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about backing Argentina’s bid to win the IMF’s approval for a new deal. The United States controls 16.52 percent of votes in the IMF, the largest of any country by far.

On the eve of the talks with the IMF this week, Macri’s government announced ambitious new targets to balance next year’s fiscal deficit, to be paid for with new taxes on exporters and steep spending cuts.

But markets remained skeptical, with the peso losing 5.25 percent of its value against the dollar in the first two days of the week, despite the central bank selling $458 million on the local spot market.

Bitcoin News,
[2018-09-06   04:56 GMT]

Interesting 'fall-off-a-cliff' Bitcoin yesterday yielding Head & Shoulder pattern where the hard landing on the neckline rectifies a bunch of fives

The Fun of the Pound
[2018-09-05   07:03 GMT]

The next few months are going to be fun for pound traders.

The pound fell below $1.29 on Monday after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit strategy came under attack from both Europe and her own party over the weekend. With each side warning of the risk of no deal, investors are becoming increasingly sensitive to Brexit headlines.

“What is quite hard for markets to work out is how much of this is political noise and how much of it is genuinely moving the probability of no deal,” said Mike Amey, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., adding the fund is hedging risks by not having big sterling positions either way.

While market participants still see no deal as unlikely, the approaching endgame is a prospect that pushed a one-month options gauge of swings in the currency up by nearly 50 basis points on Monday to a three-week high above 8 percent. That came after comments last week by European Union Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier sent sterling up by 1 percent before falling back.

The headlines will keep on coming. U.K. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab admitted that the October deadline for a deal may be pushed back, and there is increasing talk of an extra emergency U.K.-EU summit in November. U.K. lawmakers will return this week from a summer recess and any proposed Brexit deal would have to be voted on before the U.K. leaves the bloc in March.

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