Russia is the 21st Century – Ukraine Tension Eased So Crude Oil, Buyers are Going Home: “palmhead!” Dollar Index Buyer: You Have a Fear to Fear! Signal: EURUSD 200 pips Mission Accomplished. New: GBPUSD 55pips Limit Set.
Sterling market is on a tear! Since 2009, BOE rate has been kept at 0.5%, the longest unchanged policy which has never been seen before. It remains too early to give up on the uptrend yet, though cautious optimism is calling as BOE delivers rate, highly expected to be non-event. The market has been consolidated North wise for the last fortnight, a sign that top is incomplete. How many times that 16700 (2011 top) has been breached? 12times since Feb! How many closes do we have above16700? Along with few, another one just yesterday! Why lofty data is not taking to another psychological wave 170? Drop all evaluations and focus on the uptrend with a stop once a close below 16641 is triggered.
We didn’t know last week: sterling would delay its 170 target (still in uptrend); USDJPY would range about (such range is expected to be blown up within NFP session).
We did know (2 weeks ago) that commodities currencies would rally because of the ‘temporary strength of commodities such as Gold and Silver. (NZDUSD R1 8430 last month high; R2 8460 Downsloping yearly 2013 Resistance)
On Monday, the US was superficially ready to go into war because of a coup d’état in Ukraine. On Tuesday, the Eagle Putin calmed down seriously the world and says: rest assured, we are in no hurry to mark by readiness any idiot confrontation. Between superficially and seriously, equities took an off-ramp to correct all false claims; in brief, losers regained positive momentum and we continue today as nothing happens. The coming sessions, there is copiousness of data that will trigger mainly yen (crosses) out of its month consolidation patterns. The reversal strong close in equities which came upon easing tensions, will allow for example EURJPY to regain positive stance through buying the current price (14035) along with a dip towards 13920 targeting 14090. A close below 13900 negates the bullish scenario.
Indices shot up; Gold & Crude Oil ducked into red territory. Russian President ordered troops back to base after a surprised drill while 16K remain in Crimea. If what the media claim as “official war” is ringing the bell, both Gold and Oil would have been reading 2000 and 200 respectively; that is a dream, not coming true by any means. The US timeframe for conducting another war is zero, especially, after announcing the downsizing of its military and its withdrawal from Afghanistan. Accordingly, Gold & Oil have entered the bearish cycle once again, a long one. We might see a continuation of the upping trend, but that is not anymore serious. The sanctions that Mr. Kerry referred to are just ballooning , creating a belligerent circumstances that Europe can’t afford to live with due to natural gas pipe network.
Sterling charts an amazing wedge (greenish) up to Jan 2014. Afterwards, it developed a false-break in Feb when it tested 16260, a 4-month support, only to bounce back. Today, the price action visits the support of that same wedge again which coincides with the high of January @ the reading of almost 16640. Only a close below 16640 negates the bullish stance and drags the currency towards Ichi cloud @16550.
Let’s identify the real reason behind the Russian escalation in Ukraine! Let’s not believe the assailants wordings that comprise invasion, national interest, currency war, devaluation, or any US mass fabrication and deception bridge. Russia already has over $400bl in reserve, therefore, no matter what it does, it remains strategically overly protective.
Tout ensemble, the approach of building ‘Eurasian Union’ is crazing the European and the American.
Don’t Underestimate the Power of AUD even if Chinese Renminbi is cracking. NZD Force Lives its Own La La Land, beautifully constructing the next 400pips. S&P Cracked Resistance Heading North. Elliott Wave is Wonderful once those Conditions (ifs) are Removed (A failed System) While Quantum Mechanics is the Means to Observe the Light of the Tunnel. Signal: EURUSD 200 pips Working.
An old saga says when in a dull market neither sell nor buy. The euro seems to be negotiating the breaking of resistance at 13774, last month’s high, and as far as it goes that negotiation heads to failure after seven tests, creating that lulling dulling alertness. On the other hand, the pair is staying above MA100 that reads 13600 on a day like today that holds the end of the week and month, a better way to watch for the close. The high volatility that will be exerted from significant data next week to blow out all technical decorations creates a stand-by sphere warning buyers to fear a close below 13600 while sellers above 13774. Have a nice weekend!
AUDUSD manifested a mirror showdown during Asia session where the incurred loss was 100% reversed and continue to climb at the start of the European session. Such reversal indicate that buyers do strongly control the north wave while the south one is blocked and will stay in that form till 9100 target is achieved. Only a close below 8900 swifts that force to the bears, an unlikely scenario this week. (8950 might be considered an add in case a specific time frame shows an overbought zone).
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The sterling recorded 16810 high just a week. Today, it is still running a slow motion lower low channel that is resisted by 16700 and supported by 16550. Such channel is flag-poled within an uptrend, an indicator that an abrupt rally is in the offing. The hourly oscillators point to an oversold zone, thus a rally to test the resistance at 16700. A close above is needed to propel further thrust towards the last week's high. Once such close is performed, maintain the risk upon closing below this week's low.
We didn't know last week: sterling would delay its 170 target; USDJPY would range about. We did know last week that commodities currencies would rally because of the 'temporary strength of commodities such as Gold and Silver.
Technical break-down is pointed out today @ AUDCAD. First, one may eye a Par-toppish head and shoulder pattern on the making, neck-lined @ 9830. Second, bearish rising wedge (green-ish TLs) received a closed yesterday below the upsloping TL, hinting for further progress south. Third, last week close was punched below MA50, an add to the sell party; and last, MACD keys are bent gently below zero line to offer the last pressure needed and which is a close below the neckline. Therefore, wait for a close below the neck9830 and then, jump into the bear wagon railing towards 97 station. The risk scenario is allocated once the wagon is derailed above PAR.
Dollar traders are back to desk after President's Day Holiday, finding its greenback on a red territory through a purposeful mission called closing2014 opening yearly gap @7980. Such painstaking southern routing is not giving us a permission, at least yet, to facilitate an entry to the bull farm. As long as no close above 8070 is locked, our previous position is reversed targeting 2013 low at 7900. The current price 80 along with a rally near 8045 are to be lodged.
A question runs the mind of analysts: will USDJPY hit 100, the right smack at an upsloping trendline? Technically speaking: yes! It is where MACD travels below null line while MA20/50 are in sell cross resisted by the ex-support @ 10293 and 10335 - the top of MA50. If you believe in the 'yes,' then pick up an entry level below resistances targeting 100 and maintain a stop once a close above 10335 is triggered.
Check out the Opinion of Anthony Samaha regarding nuclear deal between the US and Iran.
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Switzerland - 07 Mar 2014
The Unemployment Rate released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Swiss lobar market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Swiss economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CHF, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
United Kingdom - 07 Mar 2014
Canada - 07 Mar 2014
The Unemployment Rate released by the Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish.