There is no rational decision when dilemma is in charge of a statistical hint; You may take it or leave it!
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Technically, the downsloping support trendline was breached through four consecutive-candle then re-energized and pared losses to close above that TL at 9540. Simultaneously, the steeper black parabola was breached allowing the cross to maintain altitude at 140 pips before losing control pre and post FOMC conference to hard land back at the original surface, closing below TL again. The steepest parabola is reshaped (greenish) to adjust at the close of FOMC day feeling the pressure again as such parabola is ending vertically. Unless a close above 9640 is taken, the cross to fall in tandem with the greenish parabola i.e. vertically, targeting 140 pips or 9320.
Ladies & Gentlemen, Please Welcome Syriza Leader Alexis Tsipras as the New PM
Greece may default sooner than anticipated by any as Athens stock market plunged in its biggest one-day fall since 1980s, to face snap election early in January by no inch of doubt and after parliament failed to elect (expected) new president yesterday. Another attempt is set for 23 Dec which will have no better consequences. PM Samaras failed to gather support while anti-euro & anti-bailout Syriza’s Tsipras stance is buoyed to take power to apply Grexit.
On Dec the 17th, global headlines spread no further continuation of 50 years icy messages at US-Cuba relationship whilst at the other part of the continent European court removed Palestinian ‘terrorist’ organization Hamas from the black list. What an integrity of coincidence establishing unprecedented relation with the so-called ‘bad guys’ in just one day!
The 36% swing loss was large the day Russia Center Bank raised the rate to 17%. Today, ruble market may be called heading for stabilization despite some leftover with volatility, pointing to gaining back almost 23% up to this writing.
While we reckon on global political drastic changes taking effect by Q2 or Spring 2015, FED Yellen says that FOMC participants expect rate increase in 2015. Will that rate be in the span of Spring 2015 as well to be consumed politically? Virtually, Yellen dismissed all reasons for further delay in rate hikes past Q2. Her statement started dovish and few minutes later shifted clearly to hawkish lines when bombed the market with ‘..could happen as April 2015.. .’ Nonetheless, She said April while participants didn’t dare ushering to rate hike that soon (September). The projection for now goes as 1.125% by the end of 2015, 2.5% 2016, & 3.625% 2017. The end points to Bond wave which should be followed vigilantly to assimilitate FED hawkish dollar bullish proclamation .
Find out the answers of the following warmongers questions against Russia that are analyzed nowadays by Wall Street puppets
President of EURASIA: Putin won’t blink (that is the simplest answer)
When Wall Street couldn’t enforce its monetary powers upon an already weakened economy like Syria, there is null wonder then how that Wall would shake Russia’ streets.
It’s the economy, Stupid! That was the comment Ex US President Bill Clinton made upon attacking EX US President Georges Bush so he be removed from office.
Today, that old comment is to be replaced with a new attack: It’s the Crude Oil, Stupid! Alas, we are not trying to make you sound stupid as did Clinton to his American citizens and economists, but we are trying to raise awareness that there would be so many ‘falling knives’ ahead and before the Holidays or Year End.
If Dubai market has lost everything it gained in 2014 in just 6 days, imagine then how much it is of importance to stay off trading or handle your trades to professionals so they can swing safely the account.
The portfolio of $5M has bought Russia currency (USDRUB) hitting our target of 70, yielding $275,000 in less than 48 hours, has closed its EURAUD for 630 pips, yielding $420,000, and holding its AUDUSD position for now. We are trading the Knives, if not falling, then the strategy of reversal is right behind our doors.
The pummel to 1% is the lowest level since September 2002 (pre 1.5%, exp. 1.2%)
UK blue chip was taken by bears this month amid ongoing woes in the energy sector leveling to a loss of 8.5% up to date. FTSE 100 Index is left with 1.5% span of additional losses before it erodes all last month’s gain and 4.5% to conclude breakeven scenario for 2014.
Among the Gulf countries, Dubai had the best performing index despite the fact that it is not at all a major oil exporter. The saga hints historically that for every large skyscraper there is gloom and doom. Dubai’s Tallest Tower Takes Market Down as it experiences worst selloff since 2009 as oil price collapse raising fears for banking and property companies. With today’s fall, the sharp pummel in the index has wiped out 100% the gains of 2014.
History will repeat itself in Dubai whilst suffering would be ten folds this time.
3 UK BANKS, CO-OP, LLOYDS, RBS NEED TO STRENGTHEN CAPITAL
ONLY CO-OP BANK NEEDS TO SUBMIT REVISED CAPITAL PLAN
RBS, LLOYDS DON'T NEED NEW CAPITAL PLANS AFTER '14 ACTION
A second positive intervention by Russian Central Bank in a month and the biggest raise since 1998, raising interest rate to 17% from 10.5% to halt the fall of the ruble by speculators. The USDRUB tumbled 9.6% from 66.40 to hairy below 60 after rate was lifted. Crude Oil didn’t bottom yet and there are more to go on this correlated side, thus putting pressure on the dollar to retest the high generated yesterday.
The daily lower low in crude oil knows no formula of supply and demand despite the media concentration on ‘supply glut’ economically, while energy segment is a strategic element that its price determination is far away from supply and demand curve. It can’t be a strategic element and few consumers decide on its supply & demand curve; in other words, why a government will let a consumer play the supply demand curve of its strategical element? Therefore, a political-driven scenario is emphasized on this euphoria. The lower price is no good at all for Wall Street. While Saudi Arabia decided on tanking the price of oil in order to coerce Russia to let go on Assad Syria & dismantle Iran nuclear stances, that is a lie. There is no Saudi Arabia in daring of taking a such decision, especially when Saudi is covered by Seven US bases. Then, the spiral is back to the warmonger namely US, who is behind the crushing. Oil business is highly leveraged once confronting with lower price, a meaning of least yield in return which may south stock market harshly, to end in the last phase: can’t beat the debt. There are expectations that high yield energy (>40%) goes into default if price does not catch back $60. Then unemployment in the energy sector will speed its decline while Ukraine needs $20Bl next year after it was saved by $17Bl this year. That US politician is crimpling now as he promised flooding the market with oil to hurt the Russia economy, but it is Wall Street who is being crumpled!
In two wires, we spelled ahead of time the winning of Japanese Minister Shinzo Abe. The latest wire was ‘Election in Japan’ printed on 09 Dec. Today, 326 seats have been won back by Abe, more than 317 seats required, a meaning that USDJPY deep to stay rather afloat and strategy of defeating deflation won’t perform ramifications.
Plethora of data comes this week that focuses mainly on Sterling & FOMC. Tomorrow, that gatherings of data is assembled between UK bank stress test results and then a microphone would be given to Carney ahead of MPC official Bank rate votes. By Wednesday, we move towards US for FOMC statement & press conference to end the week with a Canadian spike.
Let’s see where is the good news! Gulf markets are crashing where Dubai lost all its winning exposures of 2014 in just 6 days, being followed by Qatar, Saudi, etc… Greek Stock market crashes upon calling snap election and where US billionaires investing in Gr where forced to liquidate. OPEC won’t change output even if price drops to $40, which means, lower than $40 is non-negotiable. Last, the week is starting from major impact for first time in Sydney where 50 hostages are locked up in the Lindt Café and PM Abbot treats the incident as terrorist attack as gunmen informed police that devices are planted everywhere in the city. Who knows what’s next: maybe use of tactical nuclear weapon from Ukraine!
Sterling – Notching High to Swing for the Fences & yet the Scary Move : What Does it Mean to Have a Negative Close at the end of the Downtrend that Hasn’t Ended Nonetheless? Which Security (ies) will be in the Groove in 2015? The Troubled Currencies Related to Energy Sector are not in Trouble; those holding Derivatives are. Economists Have Been Predicting a Raise in the Interest Rate Round the Globe for more than 5 Years; Outcome Shocked them: No Raise – Seriously, Economists are Latching on to Hopes! US, EU, & Persian Gulf’ Equities are Clobbering, a Warning to a Hoisting Wedge Furnishing Sellers Positive Outcome for Short Period of Time after Five Stoppage Consecutive Wedges. Market is Shifting From Risk Taking to Risk Aversion as Holidays & Closing Books are on Tap.
Who is the only one that has proven that Crude Oil will fall to $50? Anthony Samaha
Who is the first one to calculate that Crude Oil will fall to $50? again, Anthony Samaha
What was his single important reason for the fall? Nuclear Negotiation Success (a reason that no one discusses, but rather they rely on the fake reason of supply and demand).
Attach, is a chart that shows a partial segment of his report regarding Crude Oil , printed as well on ForexSurvivor Newsletter on 22 November 2013 (yes, 2013).
A golden recall: Old customers can’t forget that Anthony Samaha took their gold to 1750 when it was 530 and they don’t forget when he grabbed their hands and bought Crude Oil at 80 targeting 200 but at the end of year 2013 he changed course towards $50 a barrel. ForexSurvivor Newsletter members owe the truth!
Strong enough despite reversal global vision. Jobless claims 294K vs. 297 exp; Retail sales advance 0.7% vs. 0.4% fastest growth in 8 months
A plethora of central banks announcing benchmark today, starting with SNB leaving cap saying that deflation risks have increased; Norwegian Central Bank surprised the market with rate cut to 1.25% from 1.5%; Russian central bank hikes rate as expected to 10.5% to stanch the ruble drain and defeat inflation, while it didn’t rule out other rate hikes in the future in case inflation stays unbeaten. And last, ECB’s auction didn’t meet expectation putting risks on balance sheet target – this alone may turn the Euros to the bear farm again.
Sometimes, several pictures grab the meaning differently, creating havoc, dilemma, and tangent in the decision making. This technical graph illustrates a broader picture that conveys the followings: A long south wave (6 months - blue line) which is taking breathe in the form of rectangle at the base signifies that low is far from completion. Any hiccup in the upcoming retracement would divert attention to a close below the base of that rectangle asserting a renewable major sell-off.
The consolidation ahead of 15500 for 20 days has brought the sterling a punch at the blue wall that was being built by straight plunge since July, gauges 6 months TL. Technically, MACD slope is upping, the candle closed yesterday above MA20 for the first time since Nov allowing an entry at current level 15710 and/or 15680 (the reading of MA20) as long as risk scenario is maintained once a close below 15620 is triggered. Aim at 15900, the support of Oct that was breached on Nov and failed recuperation through 3 tests.
Despite the fact that commodities bounced back effortlessly since the start of the month, however, such silver lining is temporary. The silver instrument closed finally above Nov's high after having several failed attempts, inducing the line towards further gains near 19 band. Only a close below last month’s low will negate the brighter side of the rally.
Among the motivating small cap charts that pinked today is Russel 2000. The knife stopped falling the second day of the trading week and then was fully subjugated to the old trend demand enhancing a glowing V-shape illustration that requests a close above neckline 1190 to have an auxiliary ascent towards a new yearly high. While aggressive contemplators can fill on any oversold short term zone today, the risk taking should be kept in progress once a close below yesterday’s low is defined.
It all seems out of a sudden that dollar is dropping like flies vs. yen, forgetting that there is always a strong pull after a harsh rally that lasted almost 1700 pips without clemency treatment, adding the fundamental decision of Japanese election. USDJPY catapulted 3.24% this week testing double ex-top 11890 of the previous month and wick-touching MA20 for the first time since November which happens to read 11800 that coincides with 23% retracement of the rally that started at 10530. Bull’s power needs a close beyond 120 to regain up track while deeper retracement needs a close below yesterday’s low to stretch the catapult towards 11500. In between, stay tuned!
Taken from ‘Simple Chart Foundations’ box, the chart of EURNOK provoked and irritated our fine job.
By provoking we mean that EUR didn’t slide vs. NOK as expected despite the fact that candlestick shooting star is vital on weekly graphs and that was certainly & heavily influenced by the sharp slump of crude oil which has a high correlation with NOK in general.
By irritating we mean that Norwegian didn’t breathe a moment where we could adapt our measure accordingly and instead, its euro rallied out of a clear blue sky without any advanced warning.
Case is closed with null in return! Through trading, that is called ‘profit.’
At the start of the month as approaching snap Japanese election, economists' reports highlighted a thought that Recession in Japan is not as horrible as thought. Out of the sudden, as time squeezes election, recession turns violent and everybody is singing the same song to either support or blackmail the election. The song today falls on deaf ears as it repels that Japanese recession is deeper than first thought.
In just 10 days, we moved from milder to severe level of recession. You know how it goes during election- selling words to attract the intractable. We remain on our note of ‘already congratulated Abe’ of last week.
Exactly a decade ago EURUSD traded below 1.20
If the closing of the year heads towards closing below 1.20
The outcome would be that 2015 coming months would be juxtaposed to have the history repeating itself by trading below 1.20 for several years.
Snap Election in Japan will favor, once off agenda, a reversal shallow retracement in the dollar, not ruling out the lulling environment of the Holidays for two to three days at max. As we, confidentially and in confidence with our humble knowledge, believe PM ABE will be re-congratulated for taking the ship back, USDJPY route has no reverse in course in the long term. In other special words, gone the old days of trading below 100, and even 110. You have just been warned!
It is all about when to raise interest: sooner than expected, better late than never, or much sooner i.e. within the first 90 days of year 2015? Don’t forget, the other side of the coin has freshened Draghi ECB agenda to appear less in 2015 and not each month for a reason of delaying on purpose some achate. At ForexSurvivor, we believe rising interest rate in Q1, 2015 is no run away. Fasten seat belt and prepare for a serious dive in Euro, which may of course tends to have some severe chops before wallowing deeper in the abyss.
Economy is adding jobs keeping wages flat - by CNN Money
Yesterday, the ECB & BOE called for no change in interest rate while Draghi conference call managed to weaken European equities and strengthened back US ones. With such malicious EU wave, the story seems incomparable between the continents. US definitely to print new high within its equities boundaries while European ones should punch new lows in the name of correction before V-shaping.
Black Out by Media: HR758 - Thermonuclear War Falls in the Hand of US Speaker Boehner Who Brought HR758 on the Floor of the House for Debate. USDJPY 120 Band is not a ‘Perfected’ Resistance to Rely on. The Story Behind the U-Turn of Silver & Gold On That Swiss Referendum (Mon) Day. What Hides December for American Equities? Santa’s Rally Is Round the Corner, namely in … & … . The Pip Gift Program of New Year of 7% Profit in Programs above $1M and $5M is Few Session Away from Ending Which Happens to Be Formidably Sooner than Expected (next week, we publish the result of $1M, & by year end we publish $5M upshot).
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has hosted his first press conference at the ECB’s shiny new headquarters on Frankfurt’s Grossmarkthalle. Top of the agenda for most watchers was a clue on when officials will finally bite the bullet and embark on full-blown quantitative easing. Mr. Draghi has given little on that. He wants to keep hopes of QE alive but without causing a political firestorm. It could be on the cards for January, but he’s left of scope to kick the can down further the road.
This was the last of the ECB’s monthly meetings before it moves to a new schedule in 2015 when it will meet only once every six weeks. We live-blogged the presser, and you read all the twists and turns here.
ECB keeps rates at record lows: Deposit rate stays at -0.2%, Main refi at 0.05%
*Next: Press Conference
Bank of England leaves unchanged main interest rate at 0.5% and asset purchases at £375 bln
Everyone’s focused on the collapsing oil price. But commodities generally have taken a pasting. Over the near and medium term, supply is fairly inelastic, which will keep downward pressure on prices.
Reading through oil avalanche analyses, one feels one’s country is corrupted, bankrupted, and even depressed as its producers should only be winning. Have you come up with any reading that spells the benefits of consumers through such a massive oil decline? Why do we need to pay over $100 a barrel when we can pay $50 and even $10? The world lived for $10 a barrel for decades. What happens to the exploitation of oil profit other than launching numerous and additional wars, destroying societies in the name of the US depressed policy of ‘War on Terror?’ this policy is bringing more wars than ever risking a global thermonuclear war if they are not extinguished fast. Last, the battle between OPEC & non-OPEC members have not find good heart yet between US/Saudi vs. Russia and as such any rally in oil is nothing less than a finger away from a sell trigger. Technically, the descent from 77.77 has embedded a stay between 38% & 23% at 69.30 & 6700 respectively. A close beyond narrates the story needed for a new low. Be wary, the broken heart favors lower price.
Draghi’s impassioned plea will fall on deaf ears as he is expected to disappoint the hopes of last Friday. Our early week euro trade filled 12300 target after being closed below Friday’s low @ 12380 enjoying 80 pips without the support of Draghi’s entreaty. Is there any hiccup rally that will interrupt the major leg down between ECB & NFP and that may stay below 12510 and in the form of upping quickly? If affirmative, then we will jump in to counter the trend targeting further South, the 11900 band.
Leaking: US added 208,000 Job in NOV (est 222K; prev 230K)
ADP: September revised from 225K to 213K; October revised from 230K to 233K
Sometimes, you have one single opportunity to V-shape your economy. You do not use. You end up like the Swiss burning slowly. The Swiss had their chance to leave the rigged casino. They voted “no” and will instead stay to play the tables until the whole casino burns down. In trading, there are benefits that come from the burning cycles. We use it. Click on chart to get familiar with the simple extraction of money from gold.
Lowest reading for a year - U.K. NOV. CONSTRUCTION PMI FALLS TO 59.4 VS 61.4: FORECAST 61
The dive on Friday and to the low of 1142 was recuperated on Monday in the form of ‘decompression sickness,’ resembling a diver that seeks rising too fast from deep water leveling to 1.618% Fibonacci retracement. The yellow plummet was short lived and the counterbalance towards hitting the roof at the gain of 6.9% or $78 to effectuate same very most.
If we are printing no new daily close above yesterday’s rally, then commodity's rally hints for exhaustion whereas price wave may stay within the $78 wave-bound for the rest of the year, then to developing an unprecedented low. Let ECB & NFP be off agenda to determine the depreciated move.
Australia’s benchmark index (AUS200 – S&P/ASX) turned down 148 pips at the rate of -2.78% loss ahead of RBA review risking a rate cut, and testing 50% fib line again of this year rally, not ruling out the psycho level 5000.
*RBA governor favors low rate and will keep raising concern about the strength of AUD, mainly after slashing commodity such as the yellow metal and the iron ore.
ForexSurvivor is a dynamic trading system that avoids all market noises and trades all instruments including currencies, commodities and equities. This program is neither a trend-following nor a counter-trend system but a combination of both. ForexSurvivor was created early in 2000 and after eighteen months of rigorous testing, ForexSurvivor Partners decided to start live trading, since the system was out-performing most of the existing FX benchmarks.