It is always significant to draw a trendline, yet, it is beyond belief how a trendline holds irrelevant of supply and demand curve.
"Sooner or later you act out what you really think." Japanese Proverb
It is a mistake to expect self-development from external activities exclusively. Recognizing that we eventually tend to become what we think, through the operation of the subconscious, it is important that we learn to control our thinking and channel it into the direction of our life's purpose-goal and aim.
What should be watched at the end of the closing year is very significant this year as the triangle is getting enough of the squeeze and as Yellen takes the lead.
Since its slide on the 25th of Nov from 13835, EURUSD retraced almost 61% Fib line within a perfected ascending channel. By definition, such up-sloping channel within a downtrend suggests that low is incomplete. Right now, the price action tends to be balancing the powerful force of the buyers and the sellers as it flashes in the middle of the band. We need a daily close to take a solid signal. If a close above the 61% Fib line materializes, then one should expect 100% retracement and much more. If the other side takes control, i.e. close below 13500, the lower band of the channel, then testing last month's low and lower would be the next ratifying news. For now, we stand by studying some convergences among some indicators (not shown) till we have a better chart articulation.
Yesterday, Crude Oil locked a close above the 4hr downsloping TL with parameters Oct and Nov, while at the same time the graph shows a descending wedge (green-ish) which is a bullish pattern implying a move towards November resistance at 9575. The extreme Oversold zone - not shown here - helps attuning the target set as long as no close below yesterday's low is triggered. A drop near 93 is an add to the calculation.
The week after the long US holidays is normally a busy one with tons of economic data and central bank events jammed into 5 days. This week is no exception. Here's the short list:
Tuesday: EZ PPI
Wednesday: EZ GDP-PMI-retail sales, US ADP, trade, ISM non-manufacturing, new home sales, Beige book, Bank of Canada decision.
Thursday: Bank of England decision, European Central Bank decision, Norway central bank decision, US GDP revision, US retailers Nov same-store sales, Fed speakers Lockhart & Fischer.
Friday: US unemployment and nonfarm payroll, UofM consumer confidence, US consumer credit, Fed speakers Plosser & Evans.
Bottom line: Global data is trending up, central banks unlikely to do much except talk, US jobs data will provide time-line for Fed taper.
"Brain surgery is much easier than trading." If you believe Forex or Options or trading any instrument is EASY, then you are surely unsure of anything related to markets. You are precarious, unstable, insecure, and unreliable.
Good news from UK data shows that the recovery is at its fastest pace whilst momentum is on the gain and the outlook is at its best in 33 months. Technically, the close is sufficient to implore the sterling as the next king. Last week & end of last month, the sterling close above the high of year 2012 putting 16630 as the next spot to visit. Any drop towards 16000, keeps the scenario bullish and is considered an add to the process while maintaining an exit once a close below last month's low is triggered.
We still believe in the USDCHF signal dated 06 Nov by adding today at current level (9085) targeting 9300. The closing basis remains same for exit, adding as extra: Dollar Index to close below 80 to exit totally - an unlikely scenario this week.
Faber says we are now in a gigantic speculative bubble. "Now can the market go up another 20 percent before it tumbles?" "Yeah, it can go up even more, if you print money."
Attached, is the result for the graphs shown during November 2013. It took more than a month to achieve target of GBPCAD while it is taken more than a month to achieve target of EURUSD at 13630 since it was opened on 06 Nov @13440. Big hit was taken on GBPJPY, where 159 pips were lost only to be recuperated by an aggressive trade with 3 buying levels and gained back all losses plus highly additional pips to reach in grand total 508 pips. All in all, the result accomplished 834 pips, a total of 1616 pips since October.
Grand Analysis favoring Grand Avalanche - Don-t even Stand aside, you will be washed away. The parabola of Gold has been broken, and when such parabola breaks, the brakes of the downtrend do not function. By Anthony Samaha: Gold Target is set at 350 in Less than 3 years.
Falling in Love with AUDUSD. The King Sterling is On Fire. URGENT TO REMEMBER: Gold: We Are The First To Announce That Gold Is Going Back To 2003 Levels - What Happen, Why it is Happening, It Just Doesn't Matter (You Boldly Recall: We Were the First Who Launched $1000 Level When It Was $300). Signal: EURUSD 110 pips Mission Accomplished. New Signal: GBPUSD: 300 pips Limit Set.
Two days ago, the world signed a best-friend nuclear deal between Iran and the US. This deal goes against warmongers master plan of Saudi Arabia and Wall Street. The signatures have stopped Thermonuclear War WWIII. In other words, they stopped the profiteering warring businesses from generating incomes which, in turn, will have enormous hidden negative implications on Wall Street, especially in the first quarter of 2014. The newly elected president of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, has his missions attained successfully. As a result, Iran currency, Rial, which was going through severe inflation, has recently stabilized. In parallel, Crude Oil has diminished 13% since he took office. Both indicators point to a relief for consumers in the coming years. In retrospect, Wall Street will battle the agenda of the nuclear deal along with Saudi Arabia and probably Israel. They will try to overshoot Crude Oil through some sorts of sabotages, but they will fail. The Nuclear Deal is the first strongest deal ever signed in the last decade. It stops wars. It means, oil sabotages and terror won't have serious replications, rather, every spike would be sellable targeting $50 and below in the end. My Crude Oil Target for year 2014 is $50. Anthony Samaha
Thanksgiving holidays might contribute to a consolidation week for the euro between 13620 and 13350. Submitting a quick review, buyers targeting 13620 should exit once a close below 13470 is triggered; sellers, might add at 13620, targeting 13350, and maintain the risk scenario once a close above 13620 is printed. Additional Hint for EURUSD consideration: The perspective dollar index was constructive & is continued to be firm, as long as no close below 80 is materialized.
Traders on board are spotting a head and shoulder image diagramed by the whit-ish rectangle: head: 8545, shoulder: 8415, neckline=38% Fib line of the rally that started in June. On Friday, kiwi closed below MA50, but no closing below neckline has materialized. Therefore, it is premature to call for a direct descent towards 80.
Buying USDJPY @ 9950. Updates will follow at later stage, as simple as that.
USDJPY is setting a high dose of nerve's volatility among traders as the pair is not doing much yet regarding the exit of the large triangle that comes to chart this year, after a severed rally which started @7700, exactly a year ago, politically, that is when Obama was re-elected). Obama remains seated, an indication that USDJPY breaks to the top side to confront the weekly downsloping trend line @ 10700. How much the squeeze may last? Countdown 10-0 begun 8 days ago. Recommendation: Sellers watch for a close above last month's high. Buyers, watch for a close below 9780, or preferably, below 9700.
EURUSD.The fall off the cliff from 13830 has reached the up-sloping trendline with parameters Jul & Aug at the reading of 13440, namely support number one. The previous double top of summer season @ 13420 joined the support zones. The 50% Fib line of the rally that started right after beach is off agenda reads 13465 (no daily close below that level yet after 2 attempts) offers a support. The RSI hits the oversold line and shows a probability of U-turn as so far it is marking a quadruple-bottomed is another link to the congested supports. Conglomerate these supports and buy near 13440 to attract 13630, the 50% Fib line of the plummet that started at 13830. A close below 13350 negates the bullish target.
USDCHF.Last month, we marked a rectangle between Sep and Oct (marked in white) stating that a close above 9150 allows a set up for a new rally. Few session laters, the pair dropped heavily breaking the base of the rectangle instead and developed to what it seems a false break as price is back at 9150. We will repeat the same scenario: a close above 9150 should tread an impulse towards 9300. An add should be considered at 9030, the 38% Fib line of the recent rally that started at 8890. Only a close below 8890 negates the bullish divergence.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Futures, Forex, and Options on Futures carries a high level of Risk, and may not be suitable for all Investors. An Investor could potentially lose all, or more than the initial Investment. Risk Capital are funds that can be lost without changing your financial security, or lifestyle. Only Risk Capital should be used for trading. You should ensure you understand all of the risks.
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AUD Gross Domestic - 04 Dec 2013
The market value of all final goods and services produced in Australia during a specific period. The growth rate of GDP is used as a broad gauge of the overall economic health. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy.
European Monetary Union - 04 Dec 2013
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).
Canada - 04 Dec 2013
BoC Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of Canada. If the BoC is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the CAD. Likewise, if the BoC has a dovish view on the Canadian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.