Economists Play with Hellas Etymology: Replace Grexit by Grimbo– a derivative from limbo that ushers to Greece’s Default Without Exiting Euro; We Remain Strict to Our Own Etymology: Grexit. The Story behind China’s Default and Capital Outflows. Will Dubai Real Estate Explode a 2nd Time? There are No One Left in the Equity Market– The Top is Non-Toppish and the Bottom Creates Fear a la Franc Disaster Style. The FED to Raise Rate in 2015: IMPOSSIBLE. EURJPY Ascending Channel Target 13100 By Month’s End. The Rally In Crude Oil Have Reached Yet the Extreme Overbought Zone. Pundits Talk About Negative Dollar vs. Yen Despite Nikkei Closing Above 20000 for the First Time in 15 years– Is their Timing Appropriate? Are You Looney to Buy the Loonie? The BOE Sterling Bullish Commentary this Week vs. Expected UK Election May 07 Upshot are Within an Inverse Relation– Be Wary: Neither Crest Cycle is Completed nor the Trough. Despite its Non-Trading Activity on ForexSurvivor Platform, What’s the Set-up of USDCHF? How is Nasdaq’s How?
It is a hard call for this trade as it is raised pre-maturely based on simple indicators only. Sometimes, a true story is the simple one without any ostensible cliché. Identifying the downsloping trendline which coincides with the 61% Fib line of the plummet that started at 0.8037, we can summarize a resistance pint at the conjunction of both indicators reading 0.7720 pivot. It is a resistance but not a strong one as momentum (not shown) suggests. The fact that the yellow double bottom were circumscribed between Feb and Mar, the gravity gave up and spoiled the kiwi for a rally that lasted the strongest (6 figures) so far. We believe the rally will continue once overcoming the next obstacle. A close above 0.7720 should drive the wave to the 76% FIB line at the reading of 0.7850 – the route between those bi-level was hard to reach previously as marked by the green color and that represents a consolidation of one full month. Another close above 0.7850 would give a final impulse towards 0.8000. Consideration to enter the bull market is between current level and any dip above 0.7350 and the exit should be fixed once a close below 0.7350 is triggered.
Good Luck! Take it or Leave it!
Easter Vacation is Behind & Market to Repeat Holidays Wave: EURUSD 110/111 to be tested. Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis Met Obama: Signal for GrExit? Volume, Volatility, Sentiment are Deployed on Board Suggesting Equity is Prepared for Correction Next Month. Crude Oil Rally Won’t be Sustainable. Will Gold Gap Higher Wild in the next Few Months? GBPCAD To Pay a Visit to 1.80 (Currently 1.82)
The spike of the Aussie comes as March unemployment rate fell to 6.1% (previous 6.3%), an indication that sell a rally is still away from current level. Resistance MA100 reads 7800 and hasn’t been touched since the day crude oil avalanched. Then, we encounter the band 7900 which entails double top, on a monthly chart.
INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.050% and DEPOSIT FACILITY RATE UNCHANGED AT MINUS 0.200%
FXCM Beirut Lebanon has closed its business door. ForexSurvivor & FXCM Lebanon agreement has been terminated. Clients accounts with FXCM Beirut Lebanon were forced to be closed and monies were wired back to investors.
ForexSurvivor has no intention to open a new line with a broker in Lebanon. Clients with over $1M are diverted to UK, and those with over $5M to Australia. Accounts less than $1M and accounts under Recovery process should stay on hold till further notice – there is an elevated chance that the company will no longer run accounts of that size (Reason is described under the next wire, title: Negative Balance Policy)
The followings proposed policy is aligned exclusively to all types of accounts – existing, new, and/or recovery- that are less than $1M.
We all remember what happens to the peg line of the Swiss Franc and how the market behaved when accounts incurred negative balances. To have the matter under control for the next crisis, and to avoid falling in the negative balance, ForexSurvivor was requested to deposit an equal sum equivalent to investor’s equity aside. What does it mean? If a client opens an account of $100,000, ForexSurvivor should reside aside another $100,000 as a guarantee in case client account goes through negative balance as when they did during the disaster of the Franc peg line. (Remember: ForexSurvivor had warned about the Swiss peg line 3 months before it happened and didn’t trade CHF elements since the warning was issued and till today; the new policy is set for coming crises).
For the current period, that request fills an equal guarantee of $30M. The negotiations between the broker and ForexSurvivor are not completed yet as ForexSurvivor is asking the broker to waive half of the amount ($15M)
The revised negative balance policy, if agreed upon, would be eligible for accounts of no less than $100,000 to $1M. Therefore, if you have an account of $70K, be ready to add $30K to keep it operational under ForexSurvivor management plan (where ForexSurvivor & broker would put the guarantee of $100,000 that comes at zero cost for the investor). All types of accounts of less than $100,000 can no longer be managed by ForexSurvivor as per new proposed policy.
We will update on the final agreement once a decision is reached. Stay tuned!
The next economic crash is around the corner. It would crunch ‘too big to fail’ banks 28 times greater than the previous time. After 2007/2008 financial crash, we were promised that those too big to fail banks won’t be reckless. The picture today implies that these banks might go out of business as small banks are disappearing from the banking industry (since 2008, 1400 banks shut down in US), thus relying on those too big to fail banks. The stoppage of those banks, specifically Citibank, BOA, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo - would come from derivatives again. The assets of those banks is barely $10 trillion while their derivatives exposures exceeds$280 trillion (28 times total assets).
And because of the exposures of derivatives, the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rate neither in June, September, 2015, and 2016; else, it would destroy derivatives. So, don’t dream on increasing rates.
What will bring the financial trigger for another crisis? Already, the collapse of Oil is the number one hypothesis. The other trigger is the geopolitical concern of too many wars simultaneously which, if not switched off in 2015, would lead to thermonuclear war. Finally, the ‘Grexit’ is a serious trigger and where we deeply assure that it will happen: Greece will be out of Europe. The Greek current bankruptcy, as everybody should know, is not a Greek crisis, it is purely European one.
Bankers started issuing ominous warnings, clearly an indication that time is running out fast! You have been warned!
China’s GDP Q1 7% meets the slowest pace in 6 years forecast (prior 7.3%) & initiated a temporarry sell off in AUD
April 14, 2015: In its first collaboration, Money Maker Management & ForexSurvivor approved $50M global facility loan for building a golf resort in Portugal.
ForexSurvivor Easter Holidays: Tuesday 31 March till 15 April 2015
GBPCAD 4 hour-chart points to a bottom slightly ahead of 61% Fib line of the rally that started at the beginning of the year, with the help of the break out of the yearly downsloping trendline in the previous week. The open of the current week along with any retracement towards 18550 would be feasible for testing the resistance at 18880. Unfortunately, the stop is not in tandem with the span of the target as it can’t be less than a close below the 61% Fib line.
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The Week Filled With Indecision Bars – Explosion is in the Offing! Gold Tested DMA100 – What is Next? Will Silver Retest DMA100 from Below? The EURUSD 110 -104 is Easter Brunch. EURJPY & NZDJPY Tested Resistance While EURGBP is About to Approach Top. AUDNZD 10400 – Expected Soon? Formidable USDSEK Parabola if for every Bubble there is a Burst. Oil’s Rally Lacks Fundamentals Despite Yemen War at the Main Red Sea Gate.
WE PROMISED GBPJPY REMEDY & WE JUST DELIVERED A REMEDY. Let's recall GBPJPY trade posted on 18 March: 250 PIPS ALLOCATED
GBPJPY previous signal was to establish long once a close above 18450 is locked. The market punched a close slightly above 18450 by 6 pips which is not convincing, especially after triggering double standard such close, initiating double top. As such, no convincing trigger was locked, the market tumbled and closed below 18200 which was set as exit. As per our definition, a close above level by 20/30 pips is always a start. Some of you, however, do not listen or email for an update regarding the recommendation, preferring a fall in the trap.
Let’s help them with gusto recovering the losses through the following signal: Sell current price 17910, add 18130, & take profit @17660. Only a close above 18270 negates the bearish wave, an unlikely scenario.
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED AS 17660 HIT AS SET TARGET
USDCAD battle field is resisted by 12840 and supported by 12350 where former was tested 6 times and the latter 4 times; geometrically speaking, that is a rectangle that needs a break out to determine the next leg.
By definition, a rectangle at the top of an uptrend indicates that the long term top is incomplete and as such, 13500 target is the long term aim that should be achievable within a year.
For the current short term move, 12350 to 12300 is a good support if we insert MA100 in the game which hasn’t been in touch with the price action since August 2014. It’d be a great move if we get the price of 12300 back on screen so we can load the bull basket targeting top of the triangle and as long as no close below 120 is triggered. If the whole perspective does fine, then we will watch for a weekly close above the top of the rectangle to keep our aim achievable. Take it or Leave it!
Crude Oil: MA100 = 51.50; Current Price= 47.40
Testing MA100 for 1st time since avalanche started to breakdown OPEC is on the agenda
In the name of a luxurious point of view, in a fun moment, we are broadening the spectrum wisely to enjoy the capacity and capability of articulated thoughts with no intention of stirring up troubles, being granted solely as modern observations.
(UK) (1946) Author George Orwell: Political language is designed to make lies, sound truthful, and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.
Dow Jones did not notch yet two straight wins in March 2015
Let’s start the week by identifying that after Yellen Speech and studying some charts including bonds and the dollar basket, we have come up with the following résumé: there won’t be any raise in interest rate this year.
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