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ForexSurvivor Newsletter,
[2015-01-30   07:03 GMT]

Year 2015 will spot PAR or 100 on the followings: AUDNZD, USDCHF, EURUSD, CADJPY, & AUDJPY. Timing is Blessed in Dilemma: Imminent; Summer; Last Week of 2015! The Saga “It’s all Greek to Me” Is No Longer Available in the Greek Bond. The Love Between Russia & Greece is Eternal, Just Like Russia & Cyprus, Both Countries Subjugated to Oil Features. High Beta Craziness, Déjà-Vu Episode. Yen Consolidating Calmly Before Storm. Natural Gas $1.5 Will Be Hooked Soon as Dr. Copper is Opening Wild Its Band for a Multiple Year Low.

Unspeakable Quotation,
[2015-01-30   06:38 GMT]

In the name of a luxurious point of view, in a fun moment, we are broadening the spectrum wisely to enjoy the capacity and capability of articulated thoughts with no intention of stirring up troubles, being granted solely as modern observations.

(US) Ex FED Alan Greenspan: The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.

You Have Just Been Warned,
[2015-01-30   06:30 GMT]

 

Waves from February to mid March will have to factor in ECB QE measures. As such, Reversals take the lead.

Out Of Ordinary,
[2015-01-30   06:05 GMT]

In 2008, the crisis era, Euro and Oil reached their extreme oversold zones. What happens afterwards? Unwound those zones known as correction where the apex of a hill recorded almost 76% Fib line. Today, not only those readings resemble the 2008th, but also, you may add that bond and dollar index are at extreme overbought echelon, quite scary; better stated: Very Scary!

It is time to make money fast money again!

FXCM: Negative Balances Update
[2015-01-30   04:03 GMT]

 

Below, is the latest positive statement from FXCM

"One of the most pressing issues following the SNB historical decision to remove the 1.20 floor on the euro has been to work diligently to reach a decision on client Debit Balances following that event. At this time we are happy to report that FXCM has forgiven the majority of clients who incurred Negative Balances. FXCM has notifed the applicable clients and adjusted client account statements to reflect this decision."

FXCM Crying Wolf,
[2015-01-29   09:19 GMT]

Please be aware of the followings: If you receive a call or email from any branch of FXCM requesting you to pay the losses incurred by CHF trades, and your account is run by ForexSurvivor, just ignore the warning and inform them that your account is managed by ForexSurvivor and that ForexSurvivor didn’t trade currencies related to CHF cross or base.

Apparently, FXCM is calling almost all its clients without scrutinizing their accounts most probably to inform the client about the debt and to speed the collection.

ForexSurvivor does not owe FXCM one dime from CHF trades, and most probably, we are 99.99% the only ONE.

What’s today’s Stat?
[2015-01-29   08:34 GMT]

 

Did it happen to know that American wages were raised only in late 1990s over the past few decades?

Unspeakable Quotation,
[2015-01-29   08:32 GMT]

In the name of a luxurious point of view, in a fun moment, broadening the spectrum wisely to enjoy the capacity and capability of articulated thoughts with no intention of stirring up troubles, being granted solely as modern observations.

(US) Jay Leno: “ President Obama said we have all been distracted by phony scandals, and it’s time we started getting distracted by the phony recovery.”

AUDCAD Herky-Jerky Direction,
[2015-01-29   07:13 GMT]

On Feb 03, the Australian market will be affected by the rate debate. The economy and the unemployment are mal functioning as commodities prices are taking a south tour including the highest export element, the iron ore. The probability for a cut next week is balanced between 50% Yea and 50% Nay. The belief that there is a cut next week is reviewed through Australian 10 year bond yield which is plunging to new lows and below the short term interest rate. RBA Steven target was set at 0.75 vs. dollar and a rate cut would push the currency even below target’s floor. Standing pat at 2.3% and looking for rate cut to 1.5% this year, we believe that, next week, rate cut should take the stage.

Technically, since the start of the year, AUDCAD maintains an uptrend slope reading today 9820, peaked few pips below 2014 resistance trendline at the reading of 10100. Between the trendlines, we are getting squeezed. We will be watching tomorrow close which finalizes the books for January. If it stays above the upsloping trendline 9850, we click the buy button on Monday targeting PAR. A daily close below 9800 negates the bullish scenario, or stop 9700. While a close below 9800, would let us click sell targeting 9640. You may add at 9950 as only a close above PAR negates the bearish move.

NZD Razor Sharp Analysis,
[2015-01-29   06:21 GMT]

Oil price is falling, will fall to new crisis level; inflation & growth risking the same trend. Central banks enter the zone of currency wars. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t keep tightening today spurring strong dollar vs. kiwi as lower oil price to have significant impact on prices and activities in New Zealand such as an increase in household’s purchasing power and lower cost of operating businesses. Further significant depreciation in NZD is expected as the exchange rate remains unjustified particularly for export prices, and in the current circumstances, the Official Cash Rate OCR stays unchanged at 3.5%.

Europe Debt Trap Spirals,
[2015-01-29   06:09 GMT]

It would be a mistake to believe that EU QE is a panacea or sufficient to remedy European damages. The risks are asymmetric for the US and for Europe especially if FED decides to tighten policy. Bank of England governor Carney attacked the austerity measure launched by the troika and warns that a second lost decade would be costly if it doesn’t ease its hard-line budgetary policies.

Such startling remarks fits the new Greek government from all corners. Carney says “As difficult as it has been, some countries, including the US and the UK, are now escaping this [debt] trap. Others in the euro area are sinking deeper.” As a result, Greek government represented by Syriza Party received a new ally in the name of UK, already snapped another nuclear one: Russia. The broad picture tells that Russia & UK need a strong Greek pie to fill up their foreign policy agenda.

Razor Sharp Analysis,
[2015-01-28   10:25 GMT]

Today’s dance is between Greece Tsipras & FED Yellen.

Tsipras knows the do – he won’t let the country default. He will reorganize radically those dramatic austerity measures that were imposed by Germany Merkel and drown Greece into no floating zone. Germany knows, that if Greece defaults or exit Europe, dominoes to stage negative effects and Europe disintegrates. That is the worst case scenario where there are absolutely no bets with to stand.

Negotiations over Euro 240Bwill be tough but realistic proposals are there. Greece 3-year-yield scaled up over 184pcs as Tsipras calls ‘no default’ in sight. The Left Party will deal only with governments, not the troika technocrats, is an unprecedented indeed challenging cabinet.

After all, he gained because his priority was addressing since 2009 the humanitarian crisis backing it up by not following German policy of subjugation, and today he unveils his coterie which consists of mavericks and visionaries.

As for FOMC, the word ‘patience’ is the key so dollar retreats.

Latest Impact: FOMC,
[2015-01-27   06:28 GMT]

Central bankers aren’t united regarding the increase of interest rate. Decision is comprehended to run between verbalisers from sooner than expected to not urgent, with each taking oil and inflation as precursors for the raise. Let’s not forget that Yellen waved 2014 goodbye through a slimy note: “Interest rate increase is coming in 2015.” Surely, you should not forget that Chairman/woman do lie as did SNB Jordan. Therefore, whether there is a raise in the rate or not should be handled a quarter by a quarter. From ForexSurvivor perspective, certainly you are living out of Lalaland if you believe the increase is coming in 2015.

Demand to Stay tepid,
[2015-01-27   06:09 GMT]

Iron ore stays on the reversal side driving with it doctor copper to multi years low, forming a rectangle at the base of 2014 downtrend in both palladium and platinum, whilst Gold, the safe heaven, rose 12% this year comparing to 15% in Q1, 2014. Demand in all those elements fits in an acute angle as rising interest rate in 2015 might pin an unprecedented swift, not this quarter though.

Herky-Jerky Direction,
[2015-01-27   05:50 GMT]

Revising our previous ‘nonysqueak’ signals for the last 6 weeks, the do bad was the exchange of AUDNZD which got us stopped out while EURUSD, DAX, Gold, USDCAD & FTSE performed best. Watching carefully the FTSE as it heads to the north zone, a 2014 resistance. Very soon, we are about to trade the crisis of Switzerland – SMI Index, which hasn’t been on our signal agenda for more than 6 months as our fear about breaking the peg line was high. From our previous Sterling call of last week vs. the dollar, it is gaining a perfect momentum as we warned that this currency has digested all bad news that hints for a reciprocal approach of its long term downtrend.

Unspeakable Quotation,
[2015-01-27   05:35 GMT]

In the name of a luxurious point of view, in a fun moment, we are broadening the spectrum wisely to enjoy the capacity and capability of articulated thoughts with no intention of stirring up troubles, being granted solely as modern observations.

(Iran) Ayatollah Khamenei: “By crashing oil prices by any sides, is a blow against Islamic and independent nations. We will answer a blow with a blow.”

US Meteorologists,
[2015-01-27   05:32 GMT]

If weather forecasters are throwing out their news as those of Oil forecasters, then plenty of errors need to be handled. People actually are not getting that snowy storm everybody in the US is talking about - 4/6 inches of snow is not a ‘snowpocalypse,’ said someone. People jammed in supermarkets ahead of storm to buy the necessities only to see them complaining for no-snow altitude as was forecasted. Another, went on to search for snow using Google engine. What a meltdown! Truly, airliners are cancelling their flights fearing of 3 inches of snow.

From our side, we question if there is a serious snow storm going on in the US or there is a reason to have the counties shut for 2 weeks?

Weather II,
[2015-01-26   17:18 GMT]

(NYSE) NYSE will be OPEN for normal trading sessions today, January 26 & tomorrow, January 27

Weather,
[2015-01-26   17:13 GMT]

(CNBC) The last time NYSE closed because of a snow storm was in 1969. As of now, NYSE will maintain normal trading hours tomorrow.

[New Jersey Governor Chris Christie declares state of emergency ahead of winter storm that is moving into NJ tri-state area.]

Herky-Jerky Direction,
[2015-01-26   07:08 GMT]

If the break down is of anything, EURUSD is saying it. The 19-nation currency snapped 2009 low, 2010, 2005 and approaching 2003 at the reading of 10750. A close below 10750 goes certainly to PAR.

However, the market digested almost all bad news which hints for a reciprocal approach. If that is a true case to pinpoint, EURUSD may revisit 120 to 124 before jolting down. If it is false scenario, it shall continue its abyss journey toward a lower low than PAR. Stay Tuned!

Latest Impact: Greece
[2015-01-26   05:32 GMT]

The winner is ForexSurvivor. It had nominated the anti-austerity Syriza as the winner of the Greek election months ago and no need to congratulate the left party as it already did then.

Anti-austerity and anti-euro shocked the German market as Greece was the first European country abling to denounce the austerity measure. “We are going to destroy the Greek Oligarchy system” Syriza new financial minister says.

How that will affect the markets? The Greek by itself can’t affect the market as the media broadcasts as in “threatening financial market turmoil.’ The Greek is not that an industrialized country to have such an enormous effect. Since when we hear about Greece economical data during trading? It is all about China, right?

But, let’s tell you why Greece is important nowadays. Not because of the its role in European country, no, but because of Russia; Putin just gained a fellow in the Southern part of the European market, and later to gain a 2nd one once Spain Podemos leader wins the coming election [this leader said when Syriza won: we now can have responsible policies, not the subjugation of Merkel Germany.”

Why Greece is safe with Syriza? by abandoning the austerity measure and relying on Russia, that is China economically, Greece is gaining a breath out of its set up crisis by the Germans in 2008. To cross the bridge between austerity and non-austerity, however, the Greeks will go through a temporary havoc in the name of car explosions and suicide bomb as it usually is the case when you decide to tie down the oligarchs thus destabilizing the Syriza party. From now, this plan will prove a great failure and Syriza will gain much more power in the future, with or without the euro.

(picture shows the Greek authenticated currency: drachmas, with Syriza Party leader graphic printed on)

Out Of Ordinary,
[2015-01-26   05:13 GMT]

A NonySqueak News Reader from the Gulf sent us an email classifying us as a disappointing source for nominating ahead of time the next Saudi leader, after the death of Abdullah.

As you can see per attached picture, ForexSurvivor nominated Muqirin next, but, the result was Salman.

Dear Reader: We want to assure you that the crown prince Muqirin will rule the realm as Salman suffers Alzheimer's disease. Please remind us again very soon! Just, don't be shy!

Razor Sharp Analysis,
[2015-01-26   04:53 GMT]

Will start the week by reprimanding forex & non-forex brokers. We have come to a point to realize that most of the brokers lack the financial visualization, lack the adaptation to research and programming, and lack the proper move, despite the fact that a crisis in the market is in the form of ‘repeated in history’ and will keep on the repeat because that is how it functions.

Despite our global warnings to halt trading CHF till the peg line is scrapped, brokers did not protect clients margin because they believed that a bank governor is a trustee person and can be relied on (as when SNB Jordan said that the peg line is not breakable just 2 days before the breakdown). So they relied on ‘said-to-be’ reliable entity by buying the euro, which turns out to be an absolute false alarm. What happened had happened: they did not raise then the margin to protect clients.

Instead, and here is the stupid move, they raised margin ahead of ECB press conference and re-raised it again ahead of Greek election. Either they are completely nuts or they are lost in the wind- they are in both cycles. We warned that the atmosphere during ECB and Greek election has been factored in and won’t cause a drama because ‘negotiations under the table’ between the Greeks & the Germans took a success shape, and any move like CHF again in one hour will bankrupt European banks in a pyramiding silhouette.

Therefore, shall we conclude that brokers knowledge is becoming old fashioned as they decided to protect clients margin when it was not necessary? Protecting margin is very good during crisis but the timing of launching the protection was after the ejaculation, absolute unnecessary. Last, it is amazing how a broker could end up abandoning such a long held policy with such short shrift.

We were glad we were not relying on broker’s protection as our management was much more rational in managing the mega accounts without suffering a single dime. As for accounts that were going under recovery and represent 1.2% of the total accounts, we were forced to lessen the number of positions, which was applied on Friday, generating either a breakeven or unspeakable loss.

No Crying Wolf,
[2015-01-23   12:32 GMT]

It is time to warn you again. It is time to be careful. And, it is the time to learn from mistakes.

You traded for three years the peg line of franc and you made a lot of money. In one minute, you lost it all, and much more. Now, let’s learn.

Equity rallied, rallying, and to rally; but the cycle tells that very soon there is a sudden stop. And there is a collapse, known as long term correction. Exit profitably before you feel the franc's sorrow again in your sheet. It is highly recommended not trading equities till the expected coming storm calms down.

By the way, don't be smart and sell. The top is never known when to be completed.

At ForexSurvivor, we will refrain from trading equities as of Monday the 25th.

You have just been warned!

Trading Tip,
[2015-01-23   06:27 GMT]

 

If you love her, take her; the index is expected to catch with the rest, a no longer laggard occurrence.

Butterflies in Stomach,
[2015-01-23   05:56 GMT]

The next round of volatility is expected on Monday à cause de Greek election but will be very contained. The winner party, Syriza, is already a winner as ForexSurvivor congratulated him months ago, will have to proven that his plan of anti-austerity will succeed against IMF, EU, ECB, the troika that brought Greece to its knees. Will Grexit be on the agenda? As far as we know, the troika did a great amendment as to lessening the conditions of the austerity program and writing off a great portion of debt which are, under table, being successfully negotiated. Therefore, with such amendment, the Grexit is no longer existing leading to no change to Greek authenticated currency, the drachmas.
Question: Why Samaras didn’t lead Greece to such anti-austerity program while Syriza could?

Unspeakable Quotation,
[2015-01-23   05:17 GMT]

In the name of a luxurious point of view, in a fun moment, we are broadening the spectrum wisely to enjoy the capacity and capability of articulated thoughts with no intention of stirring up troubles, being granted solely as modern observations.
(Saudi Arabia) Abdullah: No matter how powerful, countries cannot rule the whole world. The world is ruled by brains, by justice, by morals and by fairness.

 

(As of today, Saudi enters the chaotic phase of Yemen, Libya, Syria, Egypt.)

 

ForexSurvivor Newsletter,
[2015-01-23   04:26 GMT]

Greece’s Sunday is Shining: Snap Election Liberates it from Austerity by the Winner Tsipras. Saudi’s King Death & Yemen Share a Vacuum in Power That Can’t Affect the Slump of Oil That is Aimed to Close OPEC for Good & Revive a New One. What Happens 11 Years Ago with EURUSD? Technically, EURUSD axe Spells Either PAR directly or Rebound Near 120 Before PAR. The Ship is Sinking. The Pound is About to Seal a ‘Temporary’ Bottom vs. Dollar.

ECB Latest Impact,
[2015-01-22   13:56 GMT]

As stated today's morning, don't get over-joy over ECB, and here we are: Dollar basket remains at the opening of the day

The nitty-gritties of ECB press conference:

  • Draghi late 7mn late as elevator was ‘broken’
  • Expanding balance sheet by €1 trillion euros.
  • QE $60B.month for the next 20 months (Sep 2016).
  • 20% of Purchase Program is subject to risk sharing.
  • ECB will hold 8% of additional asset purchases
  • Euro in 100 pips gyrations as it drops 0.52 %
  • Negative Inflation unavoidable in coming months
  • Next focus: Greek Election
ECB Butterflies in Stomach,
[2015-01-22   12:47 GMT]

 

Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged at 0.05% as expected & deposit facility rate at -0.2%

This Day in History,
[2015-01-22   09:04 GMT]

 

One day in the future, we will say as Citigroup has just put it: “The most important day in ECB’s history has arrived”

No Crying Wolf,
[2015-01-22   08:31 GMT]

On Monday, as Greek election turns to off-agenda, all the bad news that is responsible for growth and inflation would have come out. Trading agenda will start a smooth period afterwards as also banking rates are factored in the volatility territories. Could be a start to stop being, Long Term, Short on Sterling.

Black Currency War,
[2015-01-22   08:08 GMT]

When oil dwindles greater than 50% in a short period of time after pumping in money to float 2008 crisis, the ripple effect is defined rather as tsunami in changing all monetizing policies, conferences, G7, Central Banks Rates, SNB peg line, etc… That is called ‘Currency War.’

The current price of oil won’t shake the fracking process and to certify the wordings, even new groups have entered the current Shale business. Whether the price would be raised or not, that is no more important. What is crucial, is to get used to the idea and accept that fracking is there to say while crude oil is there to be diminished further.

From Black to White,
[2015-01-22   05:52 GMT]

The Swiss National Bank decoupled from the euro, and immediately went up by 40 percent in value against the euro before slightly falling back. That was last Thursday. Today, is another Thursday.

Unspeakable Quotation,
[2015-01-22   05:13 GMT]

In the name of a luxurious point of view, in a fun moment, we are broadening the spectrum wisely to enjoy the capacity and capability of articulated thoughts with no intention of stirring up troubles, being granted solely as modern observations.

(US) Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke: “the problem with Quantitative Easing is it works in practice, but it doesn’t work in theory.”

ECB – Don’t Over Joy,
[2015-01-22   04:21 GMT]

Will there be any volatile environment today? Yes, definitely, volatility is there and traders believe it would be huge; however, ForexSurvivor likes to calm you down: It won’t be a scary day, and that pins a rule: don’t aim that high, and don’t aim that low. The dip in the dollar remains unchallengeable for the bulls. No one likes to mess with an angry bull these days as the euro is highly correlated with German bunds these days. Remember? German Chancellor Merkel Met ECB Draghi last Wednesday putting both the bund and the euro in a descent trend.

Razor Sharp Analysis,
[2015-01-21   13:46 GMT]

Two days ago, French President F. Hollande says: ECB QE will begin on Thursday.

Minutes ago, German Chancellor Merkel says: ECB hasn’t made any decisions yet.

Then, don’t dare forgetting what ForexSurvivor NonySqueak News said!

What’s today's Stat?
[2015-01-21   13:01 GMT]

In 2014, S&P didn’t record four straight negative days.

In 2015, it didn’t record (up to now) three positive straight days.

Unspeakable Quotation,
[2015-01-21   07:04 GMT]

In the name of a luxurious point of view, in a fun moment, we are broadening the spectrum wisely to enjoy the capacity and capability of articulated thoughts with no intention of stirring up troubles, being granted solely as modern observations.

(Switzerland) Swatch Group Chief Executive Lebanese Nationality Nick Hayek: “Today’s SNB action is a tsunami; for the export industry and for tourism, and finally for the entire country.”

Political File: Davos,
[2015-01-21   06:27 GMT]

The Climate Change, Ukraine (George Soros recently met with Ukraine President to insulate the country with $60B – of course for war purpose against Russia), Price Oil as Iran hints for $25/bbl, Hong Kong protests, turmoil in the Middle East, are themes to be addressed for 5 days in the 45th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos after 1700 private jets arrive at the canton of Graubünden, Switzerland from over 100 countries hosting 2500 participants.

Out of Davos’s first impression, one may sense that the US is doing good, China is slowing, while Eurozone faces economic challenges.

It remains to be seen how Davos will absorb the shock of ECB & Greek election.

Again, We Will Help,
[2015-01-21   05:39 GMT]

Have you been burnt by CHF trading this month? Please share your experience with ForexSurvivor. We would offer in return a free-help in recovering only your Swiss trades lost.

Contact us: support@forexsurvivor.com, subject: Free Recovery Swiss Trade

Herky-Jerky Direction,
[2015-01-21   04:31 GMT]

A great possibility counts in measuring the boredom of reiterating the same mere volatile words everyday till the bell rings its deadline. The 22Jan ECB resolution with the expected outcome of an herky-jerky direction, not mentioning the Greek election Jan 25, and not forgetting how German Chancellor, iron Lady, Merkel has played down their (ECB/election) forecasted upshot while Switzerland 3-month libor is falling to -0.56% --forcing to issue a statement that no website is allowed to publish real times rate anymore (delay 24hr), the euro is doomed, signaling the end of the euro system altogether. It is exactly the boredom time of EURCHF prior bomb-shelling 120 floor.

SNB Decision Not a Surprise,
[2015-01-20   04:36 GMT]

Someone has lied to the public; this time is Christine Lagarde, IMF head.

Lagarde, about SNB decision, said: "I didn't have to be informed. It's long ago that the IMF was the referee [for foreign exchange matters]," she told a conference in Dublin. "My understanding is that very, very few people had been informed of anything," she added. She had no idea that it was going to happen, and subtly suggested that she wasn't too happy that the IMF was left out of the loop.

ForexSurvivor fully comprehends that the decision in abandoning the franc’s floor was only finalized after Mario Draghi’s met with Angela Merkel on Wednesday (one day prior to scrapping Swiss floor) where ECB firmed up the situation with its German partner. The integration of the troika -ECB, IMF, EU- is a network that cooperates together to foster global monetary decision where taking a decision by one without the approval of the other two is nonsense. The Swiss National decision was properly unanimously taken by the troika and the FED.

China GDP,
[2015-01-20   02:55 GMT]

After cutting interest rate in November 2014, surprisingly, the Q4 7.3% Chinese GDP 2014 didn’t cause yet a move in commodities and energies sectors despite the data beat median estimate of 7.2%, putting 2014 governmental target in the offing.

Fear in Trading EURUSD,
[2015-01-19   12:22 GMT]

It is pretty obvious to scathe yourself if you are trading euro out of fear. In simple terms, trade the euro with an emotion induced by fear that ECB disappoints, and the market will level-off the ground. Trade it that no disappointments are in the offing, and the plunge is to occur.

It is plunging anyway despite today’s lift up. Don’t feel the fear, ECB won’t tolerate disappointing you.

DAX High,
[2015-01-19   07:46 GMT]

The unprecedented level the DAX has reached at the closing week of the previous week pinpoints to an extended day in gaining in equities today. The Swiss Market Index (SMI) that tumbled last week 15% a cause de SNB on scrapping its floor “is not really that damageable” as it mirrors only the move of last year (year 2014 low equals year 2015 low). Three months ago, SMI was reading 7900 hinting for a ‘buy crisis’ when market stabilizes the QE launching program.

The Round Table,
[2015-01-19   07:45 GMT]

What is on the agenda under table negotiations? Will SNB join Euro? Will Greece be obliged to raise a military coup? Will SNB turns itself to Japanification (QE)? How Greece reacts to the Eye-for-An-Eye Formula: If Troika Lessens its Greek-Austerity then ECB can’t include Greece within QE program (Surely, Greece won’t be listed in Draghi QE)?

Two Tsunamis,
[2015-01-19   06:52 GMT]

This week it encompasses two dates: Jan 22 and Jan 25.

Jan 22, ECB will ‘definitely’ do the purchase of Eurozone government bonds as the precursor was finally identified by the action of SNB last week, which cost SNB itself $50b.

Jan 25, Greek snap election to mark party Syriza as a winner, famous for anti-euro & -austerity. The shock that SNB waved to the market is for International purpose and not domestic one, as Jordan alleged. We make out the purposes as QE & the election.

EURO @ PAR and below PAR are no longer distanced an imagination.

You may count down! Good Luck and be very careful. Shall we suggest that you better come back next Monday for trading if your account is not managed by ForexSurvivor? Who knows, today the market did not gap as it already did by the Swiss, but maybe next week, It will!

Martin Luther King Holiday
[2015-01-19   06:36 GMT]

 

The schedule for markets that are open today during Martin Luther King Holiday

Lessons From Swiss Trades,
[2015-01-19   06:31 GMT]
  1. Never believe & trust what Central Bank Chairman says
  2. Never believe and trust what vice Chairman says
  3. When a currency depreciates or appreciates 40% in one single day, it needs at least 6 months to be tradable again as any 100 pips move of today equals 4 pips move of the past.
  4. Listen carefully to our warnings
  5. And simply, we are glad to announce that none of our clients suffer in that anguished howls, neither with any broker, specifically FXCM.
  6. (revise our Friday notes: we ushered that FXCM loss is INSIGNIFICANT & we said that the company is LISTED in NYSE). You should understand how listing operates before you write a single negative impression. Yes, it suffered losses and they are insignificant, clients are always protected, and raised capital not only to back up its policies but also about to expand through current negotiations that will lead to buying Alpari UK).

Now, back to business!

Buying Forex Brokers,
[2015-01-16   12:34 GMT]

 

Exclusive: IG Group looking to buy forex brokers

No Sirs, No CHF,
[2015-01-16   12:24 GMT]

Attached is statement related to a ‘Gift Program’ that we are promoting to our clients who missed the previous program which will yield 7% per this current month. The reason we are attaching the program is not the result achieved so far, it is rather, as suggested, to confirm that WE ARE NOT RUNNING ANY SORT OF CHF POSITIONS, which is of great incentive to our warning submitted a month ago, a.k.a. "stay out of CHF positioning."

(You may log in to check for yourself using GCI platform & the codes written).

Welcome to ForexSurvivor!

*Please be informed that this statement won't be tradable anymore.

CMC: Damage Insignificant
[2015-01-16   11:23 GMT]

 

Find attached the statement of CMC Markets

It is not that Bad with Brokers,
[2015-01-16   11:07 GMT]

OANDA to pardon clients’ negative account balances associated with CHF, Saxo Bank about to differentiate rates for clients transactions, FXCM’s clients owe it $225M (don’t forget that FXCM is listed at NYSE), and New Zealand foreign exchange dealer Global Brokers NZ Ltd to close due to hefty losses incurred from the volatility.

In General, brokers to adapt to current changes, had survived a turmoil and a tsunami despite some losses and very few to go offline.

If those brokers had listened to ForexSurvivor three months ago, they wouldn’t have been affected by the tumults designed to break them apart. Very few did follow our recommendation though as they forced clients not to quote CHF whatsoever till the floor 120 EURCHF is fallen apart.

Casualty: Broker UK Alpari
[2015-01-16   10:50 GMT]

 

Forex broker Alpari UK enters insolvency after SNB shock, adding that retail client funds would continue to be segregated inaccordance with FCA rules.

Causality: FXCM But Insignificant,
[2015-01-16   05:29 GMT]

(Bloomberg) FXCM Inc., which handled a record $1.4 trillion of trades by individuals last quarter, said clients owe $225 million on their accounts after the Swiss National Bank’s decision to abandon the franc’s cap against the euro roiled global markets. FXCM’s shares dropped 15 percent yesterday to $12.63, the lowest in almost two years. That reduced its market capitalization to $595.6 million. FXCM had 230,579 retail customers on Dec. 31. They traded $439 billion of currency in December, with an average of 595,126 retail client trades a day.

FXCM is actively discussing alternatives to return its capital to levels prior to today’s events and discussing the matter with its regulators.

Causality: Excel by Shocker,
[2015-01-16   05:14 GMT]

SNB shocked the world before noon yesterday; in the Afternoon, the first broker ‘Excel Markets’ can no longer meet regulatory minimum capitalization requirements and forced to quit. “Excel Markets" is asking its clients to place withdrawal requests as it no longer be able to resume business.

ForexSurvivor Newsletter,
[2015-01-16   04:47 GMT]

The Year is All About Next Week – Will ECB’s Full-Blown QE Be Launched on Jan22? How Syriza Party, Surely Winning Greek Election Jan 25, Will Force a Write-Off Debt Similar to London Debt Agreement of 1953? Military Coup in Greece!? One More 20 Figures Run in One Single Tick & Be Prepared for Bank Bankruptcy. The Continuing Plunge of the Euro Portends a Meltdown in the Trans-Atlantic Financial System Ensuring an Eruption of Thermonuclear War. The Par of the 19-Nation Currency is Sealed to be Printed on Screen in Q1 (Probability 50% In Jan & 50% in February). We Change The Content of Interest Rate from Being Raised by FED & BOE in Q1 to No Raise in 2015. Today, The Equity Network Depreciates. SNB Walks a Crash Scene

IMF Lagarde,
[2015-01-15   17:28 GMT]

Via CNBC: IMF’s Lagarde on Swiss currency move: ‘This was a bit of surprise.’

Oh No! It seems IMF’s Lagarde wasn’t being told about the move, therefore, there is a lack of communication and cooperation between SNB & IMF.

In brief, volatility to stay at extreme thereafter.

The Defeat,
[2015-01-15   16:44 GMT]

Reuters: IMM positioning shows hedge funds & specs were heavily short the Swiss franc. Many will have been clobbered today.

CHF Indicators,
[2015-01-15   14:44 GMT]

Where are indicators & Oscillators of EURCHF, GBPCHF, CHFJPY, USDCHF after SNB dragon move? Can't SNB take decision without scraping them?

Reaction After Drama,
[2015-01-15   14:04 GMT]

How many Lehman Brothers would we meet in 2015 after SNB dramatic actions? No less than $100 billions were wiped out today in a matter of seconds.

Doesn’t Make Sense,
[2015-01-15   12:43 GMT]

After 4 years, the Swiss realizes that it makes no sense to keep the 120 floor.

SNB’S JORDAN: DIDN’T MAKE SENSE TO KEEP THE CAP

GBPCHF,
[2015-01-15   12:37 GMT]

 

Will it go that low?

Swiss Chocolate,
[2015-01-15   12:03 GMT]

Go and buy some packs of Swiss chocolate before price soars to heaven, wishing we had a storage today of European truffle, or French, or Swiss!

CHF Safe,
[2015-01-15   11:57 GMT]

Analysts wonder if CHF stays with safe haven parameters. You should not wonder, it stays of course macro-economically and politically with no inch of doubt.

Mega Move Portfolio,
[2015-01-15   11:47 GMT]

Today, we confirm that our Mega Portfolios of $5M and above have met beyond 2015 target. The target was set at 120% while the outcome has come at 175%.

We close the department of Mega portfolio of no less than $5M for a week as target 2015 is hooked today, thanks to the dragon move of the SNB….Mission Accomplished within a blink.

Department will reopen on 20 January after setting a new target for 2015.

Wish you Happy Endeavors!

CHF Is Rectangl-ing,
[2015-01-15   11:38 GMT]

The weekly rectangle of EURCHF points a target of its half, @ 0.90 for 2015.

It needs some weekly parameters before we bounce onto the trade. Those parameters will be available in the first half of February.

How Low is the Low?
[2015-01-15   11:24 GMT]

Part of the world, has a different low in EURCHF

Power Of ForexSurvivor,
[2015-01-15   11:07 GMT]

Almost three months ago, ForexSurvivor has refrained from trading CHF currencies till the floor 120 of EURCHF is being eroded. Today, the warning has been hit in place.

Welcome to ForexSurvivor!

EURCHF,
[2015-01-15   10:28 GMT]

The cross moved today 3000% of its average daily moves. Black Thursday a day to be remembered. The move came right after copper pounding, happens to be just yesterday.

We believed Greece is in serious trouble. However, it is turning out other countries who pretend the best of their actions are much worse than Hellas.

CHF Brokers Margin Call,
[2015-01-15   10:21 GMT]

Many brokers suspend trade on CHF as SNB removed the cap. Would the suspension measure entails a broker to face bankruptcy?

Definitely!

 

SNB Floor Kaput,
[2015-01-15   09:53 GMT]

 

The 120 floor enforced by SNB as a minimum exchange rate has been deleted and the fall of 23% in one tick below par is the outcome so far. Euro drops to 1971 level exercising panic phenomenon. Are we seeing 0.95 in EURCHF?

Yen Crosses,
[2015-01-15   08:46 GMT]

Believing that few notices that an intersection has been made on the yen crosses since they topped in December 2014 after weighing astonishment rallies in October 2014. The intersection dent has been in the form of retracement to 50%, 60%, & even 75%, flooring October. The mirror shape is there. It took almost 2 months to finalize a rally and almost same interval is taking on the way back. The low in the crosses has not ended yet. However, for now, the yen crosses market seem paused to rally a bit before turning themselves onto a new lower leg. EURJPY 14200 is what we will be eying on in the coming weeks.

Let the 13th be funny,
[2015-01-15   08:35 GMT]

On the 13th of January, Crude Oil chart was posted stating that top was penciled on 13th Jun 2014, warning of the psychological number of the date: Tuesday, the 13th of January.

Crude oil trough had seen so far a recovery of almost $5/bbl and more seems pretty on the way. However, that move would be fathomed as first time the energy sector attempts a try to recover based on Fibonacci level.

Don’t be surprised if $60 & $65 are seen, however, that requires a stimulus favoring the strategy of favoring Russia which at the moment it doesn’t exist. Therefore, any dead cat bounce is nothing more than a sell trigger and in either way, it is too difficult to assign a respectful wave. After hitting ForexSurvivor Target at $50/bbl from $102 entry, preferable a scenario of ‘Stay Tuned’ would be formidable.

EURUSD In Conflict,
[2015-01-14   06:18 GMT]

The sharp selloff that has been waved since it peaked in Dec’14 has reached the base line of EURUSD introduction line @11750. The short time frame suggest that a need to close above the downsloping trendline and above MA50 that well resisted so far is the hypothesis to enter a long post. That may be granted today targeting 1-2 figures.

The other side of the coin says that the fall coincides with the form of knife-falling which warns that no one should catch such one. Attempting a long panel is risky but it is worth taking as long as no close below 11750 is triggered or 11670 stop.

AUDNZD in Tandem with Copper,
[2015-01-14   05:57 GMT]

10485 is a sell signal;

Daily Close above 10630 negates the first target @ 10350, the 2nd target @ 10223, and the last target at PAR.

Banks Drop Revenues a Cause d’Oil,
[2015-01-14   04:49 GMT]

Oil below $45; Oil is scary; Oil may in less than a decade trade between $0.00 and $0.99. That is not a jolt guess.

Yet, the part of the discussion for now lies somewhere else. What is happening with the banks that had helped in financing energy firms through loans? Banks are running the biggest exposure to debt as price of oil has no structures and pillars to stay afloat. The precipitous drop in oil prices is turning loans that once seemed safe and conservatively underwritten, into risky assets. There will be $1.6 trillion loss of earnings of oil companies in 2015 if price stays below $50. It is expected that a wave of write downs and impairment charges will wash over the industry if price is not going expensive again. It Won’t.

Copper Could be: Next Oil,
[2015-01-14   02:59 GMT]

Global economy is battering commodities as today it added fire to oil visualizing the slash in parameters of copper marking a loss of 6% up to this writing while reaching 9 year low. Copper’s wave of today has contributed to almost 50% of ForexSurvivor target – great achievement in one day! The price for now has no power for additional upping and the slide, along with high volatility, is pretty long. The collapse today comes amid an amended to a lower forecast tension of world bank ensuring that demand is hard to eradicate supply glut. Commodities currencies will have to forget the bullish wave versus the dollar.

Political File: Caricature War,
[2015-01-13   14:21 GMT]

Nobody forgets the bomb shell surprise that France President Hollande uttered about the ‘lifting sanctions against Russia.’ Few days later, the population was terrified as terror hits Paris ground.

The French people, however, had shown on Sunday that they are not intimidated, instead, they rallied the biggest demonstration since WWII. In parallel, today French Defense Minister declared that ISIS must be wiped out.

A revolution in France is about to begin, if not already. It shall succeed to avert the world a global thermonuclear war.

Race Off the Press,
[2015-01-13   14:10 GMT]

The forthcoming edition of Charlie Hebdo will have a print run of 3 million copies instead of 60,000 as more people, exponentially, will be watching it.

Unlucky 13,
[2015-01-13   11:16 GMT]

People do tend believing that number 13 brings bad luck and it is an omen sign. However, that should be reconsidered for now.

The weekly chart of Crude Oil spells a top in the 13 of June 2014. Since then, the price is tumbling.

Such knife-fall in price creates a low income for producers which is an omen for them, while it creates a larger income for consumers which is of great luck to them. The game says that believing in the psychological number has its pros and cons and not only one version.

Don’t forget, today is the 13th!!!

Inflation Goes Against Cameron,
[2015-01-13   09:48 GMT]

U.K. DEC. INFLATION RATE FALLS TO LOWEST SINCE MAY 2000; UK CPI (Dec) Y/Y 0.5% vs Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 1.0%). Believing in the rate hike for year 2015 needs a miracle. In brief, UK inflation and interest rates are both at a record low 0.5%

Game Changer: Gold Trend,
[2015-01-13   07:08 GMT]

If the plan of Saudi Arabia, as the simpleminded market says, is to shoot down the price of oil to $40 and even to $20 to destabilize Russia, then why Gold is not taken down as well since Russia holds the highest reserve on earth?

Gold has broken the downsloping trend line of more than 2 years, squeezing sellers as it closed since the start of the week above MA100, testing right now last month’s high while not ruling out testing the pre-previous month as well @1250, and with power enough, the rally may succumb to get in touch with the resistance trendline of year 2014 @1666. A close below Monday’s low negates the uplift.

Toronto Stock Exchange,
[2015-01-12   16:25 GMT]

Crude Oil almost finalizing with the $46 handle to have the S&P/TSX - Toronto Stock Market – composite index chalking up tripe digit to mark 1.17% loss so far as current reading is 14,216.94

The phenomenon of ‘No Crude Oil Support’ is creating a death cross chart on S&P/TSX where MAX crosses another one, as in MA200 versus MA100 offering a free ride to hell for the Canadian dollar and to the Canadian Market.

Fasten Seat Belt! Rollercoaster ride is about to begin.

Political File,
[2015-01-12   10:32 GMT]

Preventing terror attacks is turning into a dream. The France march on Sunday for unity and solidarity is sending a lesson that war is about to erupt in Europe. The network of terror is much larger, much deeper, and will affect everyone. Mobilizing 10,000 French troops after a crisis meeting to boost security is not a peaceful resolution.

Nothing will stop the tensions in Europe, the divisions, thermonuclear war unless sanctions against Russia are nullified. Rome could be next, just after France whose turn came after Australia, and maybe, US again similar to Boston marathon terror wave. All analysis point to the increasing number of terror attacks.

Don’t be naïve and blame Muslim community for the terror. It is a trap for all religions. Stay in full respect to each other as it is the only way to combat terror.

Europe is Losing Hellas; Alas!
[2015-01-12   09:02 GMT]

We can confirm ahead of schedule that Grexit will be implemented after Greece heads to the poll on 25 Jan and congratulates Syriza party for the takeover.

Bloomberg is already doing an exercise at ‘Greek Drachmas (post euro) spot.’

Eying Historical Move,
[2015-01-12   06:28 GMT]

When was the last time kiwi was worth more than Aussie? Probably older than 1970. If AUD is destined toward 9875, below par, versus NZD, would that be noted under the notion that history repeats itself. What will happen to the rates once AUDNZD starts trading below PAR? Instead of figuring out what the future hides, we will focus on a trading pattern for now that let us hit PAR as target one. The steep slope that has a peak dot dated October 2014 and a trough one early this month has been broken at the reading of 10500 today, however, the weekly close stayed below 10500 empowering the negative outlook despite the fact that the start of today is named: trading within high probability of ‘false-break’ environment. It is suggested to giving the cross more days for scrutinizing the rally’s power before adopting a bearish signal. Stay tuned!

The Week Has a Start: The Low,
[2015-01-12   04:45 GMT]

This week is simply nominated for earnings, actually for low expectations as energy trend stays in the abyss since summer 2014. The low earnings will help dollar retraces or loses partial gains driving EURUSD towards 120+ before ECB holds its meeting on 22 Jan. The euro starts its first hour by trading above the hourly MA100 to help navigate the expectation of the correction within the coming sessions. Unless you are an aggressive trader by willing to exercise additional risk, don’t forget that the falling knife is far away from its floor which means that a buy signal has the probability to hit a stop much more likely than a sell one, and keep on trying generates no yields.

EURUSD, Where to?
[2015-01-09   09:20 GMT]

Europe in crisis, do you agree? If YES, then proceed with the readings.

In 2008, Europe undergone a crisis as its currency did not float before submerging 23% of its value. Since you agree that Europe is going under another crisis, then let’s hide (chart: black box), by imagination, the years between 2008 and 2014, so we can continue with the crisis as agreed. Therefore, after plunging 23%, the currency retraced to Fibonacci levels between 38% & 50% (year 2014), only to confirm that crisis has not been cured and the currency tumbles again towards a lower low than 2008 (low of 2008 = 12330). The market will stay below 12340 as long as crisis mode is on. Only a MONTHLY CLOSE ABOVE 12330 will put a bottom to the crisis, an unlikely scenario in the first half of year 2015.

Loading Crude Oil Bottom ,
[2015-01-09   07:45 GMT]

Technically, the bottom may be currently featured at the 16-year up sloping trendline, monthly parameters are large, depending on the exact dot of the TL which is not a focus as parameters do daily change wildly on a monthly chart, ranging between $45 and $50/bbl. Economically, the talk about supply glut is still a concern adding fear to an increase probability of lower price. Politically, as it is exactly the case when avalanching 56.7%, who really cares about those technical formations and the supply glut analysis?

The grand picture remains favorable towards political decision to ‘sell rally.’

ForexSurvivor Newsletter,
[2015-01-09   06:50 GMT]

The Relation between Commodity Currencies & Oil (+Iron Ore) Absolutely Not Ignorable. The Yen Crosses Designate Double-Bottom & Ascending Triangle Encouraging a Yen Short Term Ceiling. Find Out What Would Happen to Oil Glut if Saudi Arabia is Next After Libya as if the Request of “US Congressmen Ask for the Disclosure of 9/11 28-page” is Granted. Do We Expect Gold to Mirror-Move Year 2014 in the first half of the year? Political File: Year 2015: Europe is being Plunged into a Chaos Scenario, Pitting Sections of the Population (pro-immigration against anti-immigration; pro-Muslim vs. anti-Muslim) - STOP the Chaos & Unite Before War Ignites to Portending Financial Crash.

 

EURCAD Postpones Rally,
[2015-01-09   06:22 GMT]

EURCAD achieved a mirror-wave in December, by rallying 7 figures in the first fortnight then paring those gains using the same momentum. A negative close today would harvest 200-pips-bear-admirable next week. Stay tuned!

NZDUSD Outside Dollar Circle,
[2015-01-09   06:11 GMT]

The rally of NZDUSD has been halted by MA100 and in touch with it the first time since July 2014. If today’s close is surged above yesterday’s high, then the rally should gain momentum towards 0.8000 as long as this week’s low holds.

ECB Jan 22 meeting is getting near to influence traders’ minds that are fearful of dreadful consequences, the dollar may start printing a turtle-move in the form of consolidation or retracement within the next 24hr of trading till the 22nd.

Steady State NFP,
[2015-01-08   16:38 GMT]

 

Unemployment Steady in December, Then Slow Decline Over the Next 6 Months

Read: Forecasted Model

EURGBP 7815,
[2015-01-08   15:58 GMT]

There was a serious bull-bear battle over a 3-month trendline between the end of year 2014 and the start of year 2015 that ended with neither perma-bull nor with perma-bear. The market indicators, not shown, are in oversold territory but below a serious X moving average. Unless both indicators are blown-up, an entry is titled still under ‘stay-tuned!’

Go Back 28 Years,
[2015-01-08   15:14 GMT]

Did it happen to know that in 1987, the Dow Jones triggered a close above 2000?

It seems we are going there but be careful, only aggressive traders are allowed to trade a psychological level.

S&P 2050,
[2015-01-08   15:09 GMT]

 

It is just about 10 points away from its first entry in year 2015. The small gap is sealed with 2070

Dow Jones Partying,
[2015-01-08   14:58 GMT]

For a 2nd consecutive days, the Dow Jones reversed its aggressive nosedive to print a gain of 3.2% so far being sparked by a shameful uptick in oil and FOMC minutes. Sentiment to remain buoyed for today not ruling out a full retracement to the last week high of 2014.

Year 1999
[2015-01-08   12:18 GMT]

 

In 1999, January 01, EURO launch rate was scheduled at 1.1747

January 04, 1999: Euro was first exchanged at 1.1789

 

BOE holds rates for 70th consecutive meeting
[2015-01-08   12:06 GMT]

 

BANK OF ENGLAND MAINTAINS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE AT 0.5% and HOLDS ASSET PURCHASE PLAN AT 375 BILLION PNDS

€ Forecast,
[2015-01-08   09:23 GMT]

As euro tumbles briefly to below 11800 for the first time since 2005, we can confirm that the handle of 11700, 11600, and 11500 are there for trading patterns, just like when Crude Oil was $80/bbl and too many buyers entered the market then, but suddenly, it printed $70, $60, and triggered ForexSurvivor target that was set in November 2013 @ $50.

Dollar Sellers You Have Been Warned!

Yellow Metal,
[2015-01-08   09:05 GMT]

The technical picture of Gold assembles a triangle with parameters 1220 and 1160,

resisted by downsloping trendline since July 2014, and

supported by upsloping trendline since Nov 2014.

This week, the market tested the trendline via two daily attempts and the result was a retreat, yet the TL was breached.

The probability to have another assault as NFP runs tomorrow is getting high.

The bull side, if effectuated, should have an exit if ever a close below 1160 is triggered. While those in the bear farm, pay attention if a close above 1220 is triggered.

Politics: France Under Attack,
[2015-01-08   08:38 GMT]

One police injured today near La port de Chatillon few hours after the gruesome acts of killing some of France’s most controversial and beloved satirical illustrators. The response from the French people was spontaneous rallies to show that freedom of speech is necessary and they are not afraid. Two gunmen have turned Paris upside down and the President enunciated on the scene that it is an act of terrorism, remembering (he should) his stance in bombing Islamists into power in Libya while funding them in Syria.

It is a dangerous moment for Europe and as we warned previously, a civil war won’t be evitable unless scaling down the sanctions against Russia. Today, it is France, tomorrow who knows? Already, anti-Islam movement is getting large and large in Germany and maybe it is on its way now to France as Muslim population will definitely experience a backlash similar to the effect of 9/11.

Remember: those who killed yesterday are highly trained and professionals. That is scary!

 

Standard Chartered,
[2015-01-08   08:03 GMT]

(Reuters) - Standard Chartered is closing the bulk of its global equities business …the bank is now dismantling its stock broking, equity research, and equity listing desks worldwide, exiting a business that it views as non-core and unprofitable.

Question: If equities business weren’t profitable for the bank, then what is profitable? Equity trend has revved up since crisis 2008 of no less than 200%, knowing that the bank received as well bail out during crisis. Yet, the derivatives business is there to stay, waiting a total blow out in the near future along with Wall Street ones.

It Was Today,
[2015-01-08   07:51 GMT]

No ECB Today; usually, it should have been today where ECB announces benchmark rate followed by a press conference. Rather, the schedule is kept for BOE alone. As Lithuania marks the number 19th of EU since the year started and as the stimulus program is about to take off, ECB to meet every 6 weeks in Frankfurt while two of the yearly meetings are scheduled to be conferenced outside Germany.

The Dollar,
[2015-01-07   11:58 GMT]

 

Printing levels not seen for a decade, dollar index has risen above 92.0

France Shooting,
[2015-01-07   11:48 GMT]

French President Hollande is heading to Paris offices of a satirical magazine (headquarters of Charlie Hebdo) after gunmen killed 11 including 2 police and injuring more than 3. Not only guns but also rockets were used. Attached, is the latest cartoon published by the satirical magazine known for publishing controversial religious cartoons.

As long as War on Terror is still the strategy, as long as terrorism is in tensed and broadened to the most peaceful countries.

 

Rumors: Saudi’s King,
[2015-01-07   11:26 GMT]

Crude Oil just gains (will be short-lived) some portions of the losing pie as rumor was flooded on board that the 91 year old, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, is dead. The kingdom faces readiness for abdication as King’s life is on edge. The next crown will probably fit to the 70 years old Muqirin.

Saudi oil kingdom is surrounded by dangers, be it ISIS, princely disputes, from North pole Syria, from South Huthis of Yemen, Iran and its proxy Lebanese resistance Hezbollah.

Election Immigrated,
[2015-01-07   10:51 GMT]

Germany has the lowest birth rate in Europe while the British has the highest as German Chancellor Merkel meets with David Cameron focusing on immigration. This factor, the highest to be debated in 2015, is what Cameron relies on to win the election.

CPI Data,
[2015-01-07   10:07 GMT]

December: EU CPI -0.2%; exp -0.1%; prev 0.3%

Economists expected to have CPI data fallen for the first time in 5 years. The just-released negative data signaled that it meets economists’ expectations but price fell more than the forecast, therefore sliding towards the urge in issuing QE to perk up inflation.

Unemployment in Europe,
[2015-01-07   09:17 GMT]

 

6.5% a record low in German unemployment as recovery strengthens versus 13.4% a record high in Italian’s, both countries run by same Central Bank.

War Exit is Warming,
[2015-01-07   08:54 GMT]

French president Hollande warns on Sunday: “We must put an end to the sanctions (against Russia) now.” German Vice-Chancellor warns: remember, Russia is a nuclear power.

Europe can’t afford another crisis and another war. The plunging price of oil is leading already Europe to a deflationary spiral, the reaction of the stock markets at the start of this week, and the unpayable debt that will come out from Greece once Syriza takes control, show the indisputably hesitation to face another contagious crisis starting from Greece.

Brent From Below,
[2015-01-07   08:00 GMT]

Here we are! Brent goes below $50/bbl for the first time since Q2 2009. Having a passion for keeping things simple, no one rules out lower levels anymore.

Bank’s Hiccup,
[2015-01-07   07:54 GMT]

A strategist at Societe Generale SA based in London is alarmed by the strength of the dollar and the extreme positions rising a quote “Correction seems likely very soon, if it isn’t already starting.’

GBPUSD TL,
[2015-01-07   07:08 GMT]

As stated on 05 January, the 5-year weekly trend line has complied with our notion of ‘weakness’ as we believe that the dollar was poised to extend gains because roadblocks are expected to be few in the assumption that FED will raise rate between Q1 & Q2.

ECB Tone,
[2015-01-07   06:40 GMT]

Today, crucial European data about inflation will set the tone of ECB bond purchases program that is needed to derail deflationary spiral of falling prices as 5y5y inflation expectations pummels to fresh low and the fear is built to stay low all year long.

Japanification,
[2015-01-06   10:18 GMT]

We can confirm that Eurozone’s ship just capsized as Crude Oil trades below $50 and it is no longer stoppable the sinking into the abyss of deflation. ECB is in trouble, big one, as ECB Draghi connotation that ‘Deflation cannot be ruled out completely’ is coming live as of today.

He will be forced to amend his plans most probably to let every national central bank buy bonds of its own governments.

Right now, the euro is being traded below economist’s 2015 forecast. It was fast!

Timing for 2015 Crisis,
[2015-01-06   08:16 GMT]

In March, If Greece receives no support, it’d be out of cash (thus, the date of Grexit is set days later).

In July & August, Greece has to repay €6.7b to ECB.

The Calm Before the Storm,
[2015-01-06   08:08 GMT]

It is no longer hidden. The dark cloud is spreading over euro zone where a calamitous chain reaction is no longer able to be averted. First female German Chancellor, known as Europe iron lady, Angela Merkel believes that Greece, if ejected, crisis after can be contained- as European bond yields are not plummeting to unprecedented levels not seen since ‘uncharted date.’

The contagion is in full development to spread its wings towards Spain, Portugal, Italy (definitely), and France (probably) if anti-austerity, anti-euro, anti-bailout party Syriza wins the Greek election on 25 January, 3 days after ECB meeting.

ECB promises to do what is necessary to save the euro as Draghi couldn’t exclude deflation, a precursor to a massive introduction of QE madness which entails the purchase of sovereign debt on January 22. But Draghi can’t buy Greek bonds three days earlier than the election date neither he can exclude them from the purchases resulting in swinging suggestion to delay further QE.

Will Draghi be able to afford extra delay as price of Crude Oil is losing more than 53% pushing inflation back to below zero?

No matter what happens, Europe is close to a triple dip recession similar to the trap of Japan. Spitefulness recall, the introduction of QE by the FED has created a serious bubble in Wall Street which faces a no run out of a rupture, and the triple dip recession ignited the dollar yen where Draghi is about to make the same mistakes on purpose to buy nothing but time on European platform.

Pessimistic Indeed,
[2015-01-05   15:31 GMT]

Did it happen to know that Crude Oil, before avalanching 53% up to date, had peaked in 2014 on the 13th of June @10755/bbl ?

What a date! The pessimistic 13th for producers while it is a bright optimistic for consumers.

Technically, the $45/bbl marks 16-year trendline (since 1999)

Venezuela Stocks Depleted,
[2015-01-05   10:15 GMT]

In September 2014, the government implemented a system for storing fingerprints shoppers to stop hoarding and to distribute scarce goods more equitably. Nevertheless, that finger print readers didn’t last as emptied Supermarkets in Venezuela is making the headline as the country triggers hyperinflation ahead of visiting the Chinese President XI Jinping by counterpart N. Maduro. Not only basic goods shelves are going scarce but also medicines, a striking circumstance.

Economic Calendar,
[2015-01-05   08:59 GMT]

It sounds pretty busy this week between weak European inflation figure and US Payroll. As of the latter, it doesn’t matter this week if the number meets expectations or not. It does matter knowing that 2014 was the largest in number since 1999. The bullish figure is there to stay then this month and Friday jobs report should support the strong momentum.

GBPUSD Breaking Story,
[2015-01-05   06:30 GMT]

Fundamentally, it is said that sterling has fallen to 15185 versus the dollar because of weak manufacturing data that was printed on Friday. Technically, the bounce is not said because there is a weekly trendline since 2009 low that reads today 15190 if 2009 and 2013 dots are connected. Don’t worry buyers, it is not a strong 5 years trend.

EURUSD (11935) Tipped Over the Cliff,
[2015-01-05   06:09 GMT]

Plenty of buyers were located at the strong psychological EURO 120 being convinced that it won’t be trapped down from first hit. 11870 was the low of year 2010; It was broken by 10 pips to hit 2006 low band, that is 9 years ago where the price afterwards shot up 4000 pips to mark 160 in 2008, colliding with 2008 Lehman crisis creating an avalanche afterwards of 23%.

Since then, the euro zone hasn’t recovered above that peak. Blame goes over worries of Grexit which is not a fine German art, rather, it will blow definitely a security out, will tense a political situation with Germany which feels comfort if Grexit is taken onto action, to have absolutely what no one wants – a civil war inside Europe.

In brief, no out of the woods for euro in the near term especially ECB QE is getting so close. As trading matters, euro market should close the psychological 120 gap after having a precipitous decline of 1.1% at the opening. Be wary, counting on closing a gap without an exit scenario limiting the loss is a harsh move as sometimes a gap is never closed and sometimes it is closed within same day of opening.

We Promised the Gift for $1M & $5M, We handed Over the Gift of 7% & 12%,
[2015-01-02   14:28 GMT]

On November 2014, you may revise through NonySqueakNews, that ForexSurvivor planned to offer a ‘gift’ to its readers, clients, even non-members. That gift comprises 7% return on accounts of no less than $1M and 7% on accounts no less than $12. In mid December, we announced that the gift for $5M would be extended to 12% instead of 7%.

The gift was delivered to our readers, clients, and everyone who was interested, even non-members as of end of year 2013. The gift has zero charges and zero obligations.

Congratulations! We achieved our 7% and 12% for $1M & $5M respectively. We hope that year 2015 would be prosperous to all as everyone deserves the best, everyone needs the best, and everyone should help other for a do in their bests.

The picture shows the results of account $1M and $5M

IGWT

Worth K Words,
[2015-01-02   09:26 GMT]

 

From Space, the boiling of Oil tanks in Libya

Strategists of Year 2015,
[2015-01-02   09:14 GMT]

It is our mandate warning you that strategists will come up with plenty of projections during January 2015. Following them is a choice of yours. However, before you do that, take a note.

Number 01: A strategist who predicts without a trend warning reversal levels ( or stops) should be muted.

Number 02: A strategist who projects long term without deep fundamental and technical and even political analysis is definitely to be ignored – in some examples, they radiate a whole text to just say that it is simply a combination of X & Y that lead to Target Z. That is nonsense.

Number 03: A strategist offers ‘free’ projections – Have you ever asked why offered them free? You should ask. It is insurmountable to have a remuneration off-road route without long term training, investment, follow up, tactical arrangement in liaison with strategic pact that contributes back up scenarios.

All in all, long term success does not come from free publications.

Did You Welcome Lithuania?
[2015-01-02   08:33 GMT]

Euro memberships expanded to 19 nations after Lithuania was brought in on Jan 01, 2015. We really aren't feeling that Lithuania has joined euro as of Jan 01, but certainly we are feeling that Greece is out of euro after a President presides, driving troika out. or troika has to unleash its austerity measures and call off partial debts which bring attention to other troubled nations (PIIGS). Either way, the troika to start the year with a rift.

EURUSD 12035,
[2015-01-02   07:46 GMT]

The lowest drop since June 2010 is occurring right now where euro printed 12033 low as we are approaching the promises of ECB (Sovereign Quantitative Easing).

 

 

Europe In Greece,
[2015-01-02   07:31 GMT]

Before election in Greece takes its outcome after the meeting of ECB on 22 Jan (You should wonder why election takes place after the meeting and not before), German Merkel’s ally bombed a vision: ‘the times where we had to rescue Greece are out.’

Shall we conclude that the monetization system of Europe is failing starting from Greece where ForexSurvivor projects its return to its authenticated currency known as drachmas and where ‘devaluation of that currency’ is the only way to rescue Greece? As a matter of fact, the south of Europe is not doing well with the euro, leading to a high probability that countries’ shores containing gas and oil are euro-negligent chiefly after the annexation of Crimea.

Year 2015 to be remembered for Lithuania In & Greece Out.

EURGBP 7750,
[2015-01-02   07:20 GMT]

The cross starts the new year with a new low, last seen in 2012. Next support comes at the base of 2008 that reads 7735. The market eyes there for a test. Stay tuned!

Economists Projection,
[2015-01-02   06:44 GMT]

Call it an embarrassment; call it a failure; call it wrong; the consensus for economists regarding the price of crude oil was $94/bbl for 2014.

ForexSurvivor’s projection (printed on 22 November 2013) for 2014 was $50/bbl.

Economists failed in several most important factors of economic mainly Interest Rate, Payroll, Inflation of course, and they will surely in GDP when numbers are out this month.

When it comes to guessing, it is pretty difficult game. When it comes to economists’ studies, pretty convenient are a lost game. The studies of economists in the last decade have broken eternally the supply demand curve and in tranches, becoming a non-viable and undependable source. Since 2008, we have on the repeat calls that supply and demand do not exist as presented by economists. Today, the world starts (probably) believing that this is the reality, specifically as presented in 2014 by Crude Oil trend which relies heavily, as they say, on supply and demand. The false definition: Crude Oil plummets in 2014 to multi-year lows on supply ‘glut.’ That is a grand lie.

As many knows (through Newsletter of 22 Nov 2013), we formulated the price based on Nuclear Negotiation Success. It was a super success for ForexSurvivor that brought media to its knees. Media, be it CNBC, Bloomberg, and others do not dare admitting that at least there was one person who forecasted the price of Crude Oil right. They insist on: No One!

Year 2015
[2015-01-02   05:11 GMT]

 

A New Year A New Start

What is ForexSurvivor?

ForexSurvivor is a dynamic trading system that avoids all market noises and trades all instruments including currencies, commodities and equities. This program is neither a trend-following nor a counter-trend system but a combination of both. ForexSurvivor was created early in 2000 and after eighteen months of rigorous testing, ForexSurvivor Partners decided to start live trading, since the system was out-performing most of the existing FX benchmarks.

ForexSurvivor offers a Complete Solution to Successful Trading By

  • Providing accurate signals that give positive trades
  • Providing advice and recommendations to convert clients' current losing trades into winning trades
  • Restoring clients’ diminished account balances to their original opening balance

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